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The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale

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  • Sarah Harris
  • Wendy Anderson
  • Musa Kilinc
  • Liam Fogarty

Abstract

Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur’s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram’s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Harris & Wendy Anderson & Musa Kilinc & Liam Fogarty, 2012. "The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 391-415, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:63:y:2012:i:2:p:391-415
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0156-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, September.
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Jackman, Simon, 2008. "Regression Models for Count Data in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i08).
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    1. Vassiliki Kotroni & Constantinos Cartalis & Silas Michaelides & Julia Stoyanova & Fillipos Tymvios & Antonis Bezes & Theodoros Christoudias & Stavros Dafis & Christos Giannakopoulos & Theodore M. Gian, 2020. "DISARM Early Warning System for Wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-30, August.

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