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Thermal hazards zonation and permafrost change over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

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  • Zhongqiong Zhang
  • Qingbai Wu

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is the largest permafrost region at low latitude in the world. Climate warming may lead to permafrost temperature rise, ground ice thawing and permafrost degradation, thus inducing thermal hazards. In this paper, the ARCGIS method is used to calculate the changes of ground ice content and active layer thickness under different climate scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, in the coming decades, thus providing the basis for hazards zonation. The method proposed by Nelson in 2002 was used for hazards zonation after revision, which was based on the changes of active layer thickness and ground ice content. The study shows that permafrost exhibits different degrees of degradation in the different climate scenarios. The thawing of ground ice and the change from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost were the main permafrost degradation modes. This process, accompanied with thinning permafrost, increases the active layer thickness and the northward movement of the permafrost southern boundary. By 2099, the permafrost area decreases by 46.2, 16.01 and 8.5% under scenarios A2, A1B and B1, respectively. The greatest danger zones are located mainly to the south of the West Kunlun Mountains, the middle of the Qingnan Valley, the southern piedmont of the Gangdise and Nyainqentanglha Mountains and some regions in the southern piedmont of the Himalayas. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau permafrost region is in the low-risk category. Climate warming exacerbates the development of thermal hazards. In 2099, the permafrost region is mainly in the middle-risk category, and only a small portion is in the low-risk category. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongqiong Zhang & Qingbai Wu, 2012. "Thermal hazards zonation and permafrost change over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 403-423, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:61:y:2012:i:2:p:403-423
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9923-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Nelson & O. Anisimov & N. Shiklomanov, 2002. "Climate Change and Hazard Zonation in the Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 26(3), pages 203-225, July.
    2. V. E. Romanovsky & T. E. Osterkamp, 1995. "Interannual variations of the thermal regime of the active layer and near‐surface permafrost in northern Alaska," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 313-335, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuangyang Li & Yuanming Lai & Wansheng Pei & Shujuan Zhang & Hua Zhong, 2014. "Moisture–temperature changes and freeze–thaw hazards on a canal in seasonally frozen regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 287-308, June.
    2. Shengbo Xie & Jianjun Qu & Xiangtian Xu & Yingjun Pang, 2017. "Interactions between freeze–thaw actions, wind erosion desertification, and permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 829-850, January.
    3. Tao Zhao & Chong Wang & Jiachen Wang, 2023. "Influence of Climate Warming on the Ground Surface Stability over Permafrost along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Yi-ping Fang & Fu-biao Zhu & Shu-hua Yi & Xiao-ping Qiu & Yong-jiang Ding, 2021. "Ecological carrying capacity of alpine grassland in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on the structural dynamics method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12550-12578, August.

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