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Convex model for gross domestic product-based dynamic earthquake loss assessment method

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  • Lizhe Jia
  • Hui Li
  • Zhongdong Duan

Abstract

Ground motion intensity was presented as Modified Mercalli Intensity in gross domestic product (GDP)-based earthquake loss assessment method, and the variable uncertainties and the variation of GDP with time were neglected. In this study, the hazard-loss/GDP relation was determined based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), and the uncertainties of PGA and the hazard-loss/GDP relation were modeled with the Envelope Bound Convex Model and the curves of GDP with time were also derived. Finally, the earthquake loss of Ningbo city was estimated and disaggregated,and sensitivity of uncertain variables was investigated. The results show that the loss with Chen method locates in the lower half intervals of convex analysis results, and the most loss is from frequent earthquake. Hazard-Loss/GDP relation gives the most contribution to loss uncertainty, and the reminder sequence of sensitivity is the annual occurrence rate v, the b value and the upper bound magnitude M u . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Lizhe Jia & Hui Li & Zhongdong Duan, 2012. "Convex model for gross domestic product-based dynamic earthquake loss assessment method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 589-604, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:589-604
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0028-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qi-Fu Chen & Yong Chen & Jie Liu & Ling Chen, 1997. "Quick and Approximate Estimation of Earthquake Loss Based on Macroscopic Index of Exposure and Population Distribution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229, May.
    2. L. Cha, 1998. "Assessment of Global Seismic Loss Based on Macroeconomic Indicators," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 17(3), pages 269-283, May.
    3. José Badal & Miguel Vázquez-prada & Álvaro González, 2005. "Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(3), pages 353-374, March.
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