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Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

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  • Francisco Gutiérrez
  • Jesús Guerrero
  • Pedro Lucha

Abstract

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km 2 year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km 2 ) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km 2 year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km 2 year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Gutiérrez & Jesús Guerrero & Pedro Lucha, 2008. "Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 45(2), pages 211-233, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:211-233
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9161-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Remondo & Alberto González & José De Terán & Antonio Cendrero & Andrea Fabbri & Chang-Jo Chung, 2003. "Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(3), pages 437-449, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Dou & Xia Li & Ali Yunus & Uttam Paudel & Kuan-Tsung Chang & Zhongfan Zhu & Hamid Pourghasemi, 2015. "Automatic detection of sinkhole collapses at finer resolutions using a multi-component remote sensing approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1021-1044, September.
    2. Jianxiu Wang & Xueying Gu & Yukun Jiang & Tianrong Huang & Bo Feng, 2013. "Point-line-area-volume index system of land subsidence and application in Ningbo, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2197-2214, December.

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