IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v44y2008i1p65-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

Author

Listed:
  • Chang-Chi Cheng
  • Nien-Sheng Hsu
  • Chih-Chiang Wei

Abstract

The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Chang-Chi Cheng & Nien-Sheng Hsu & Chih-Chiang Wei, 2008. "Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(1), pages 65-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:65-84
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9142-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-007-9142-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-007-9142-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Szu-Ping Cheng & Ru-Yih Wang, 2004. "Analyzing Hazard Potential of Typhoon Damage by Applying Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 77-103, September.
    2. Stanley Changnon, 2003. "Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes, Not Global Warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 273-290, June.
    3. Cheng-Shang Lee & Li-Rung Huang & Horng-Syi Shen & Shi-Ting Wang, 2006. "A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 37(1), pages 87-105, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. Yazdi & S. Salehi Neyshabouri, 2012. "Optimal design of flood-control multi-reservoir system on a watershed scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 629-646, September.
    2. Peng Ye & Xueying Zhang & Ge Shi & Shuhui Chen & Zhiwen Huang & Wei Tang, 2020. "TKRM: A Formal Knowledge Representation Method for Typhoon Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsung-Yi Pan & Lung-Yao Chang & Jihn-Sung Lai & Hsiang-Kuan Chang & Cheng-Shang Lee & Yih-Chi Tan, 2014. "Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(3), pages 1763-1793, February.
    2. Morgan, Kimberly L. & Larkin, Sherry L. & Adams, Charles M., 2011. "Empirical analysis of media versus environmental impacts on park attendance," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 852-859.
    3. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 215-237, July.
    4. Madhav L Khandekar, 2005. "Extreme Weather Trends Vs. Dangerous Climate Change: A Need for Critical Reassessment," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(2), pages 327-331, March.
    5. Aparna Gupta & Abena Owusu & Jue Wang, 2024. "Assessing U.S. insurance firms' climate change impact and response," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(3), pages 571-604, July.
    6. Stanley Changnon, 2007. "New risk assessment products for dealing with financial exposure to weather hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 43(3), pages 295-301, December.
    7. Melanie Gall & Kevin A. Borden & Christopher T. Emrich & Susan L. Cutter, 2011. "The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(11), pages 1-25, November.
    8. Chien-Yuan Chen & Lee-Yao Lin & Fan-Chieh Yu & Ching-Sheng Lee & Chun-Chieh Tseng & An-Hsiang Wang & Kei-Wai Cheung, 2007. "Improving debris flow monitoring in Taiwan by using high-resolution rainfall products from QPESUMS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(2), pages 447-461, February.
    9. W. Botzen & J. Bergh & L. Bouwer, 2010. "Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(3), pages 577-598, March.
    10. Chi-Feng Chen & Chung-Ming Liu, 2014. "The definition of urban stormwater tolerance threshold and its conceptual estimation: an example from Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 173-190, September.
    11. Ying Huang & Long Jin & Hua-sheng Zhao & Xiao-yan Huang, 2018. "Fuzzy neural network and LLE Algorithm for forecasting precipitation in tropical cyclones: comparisons with interpolation method by ECMWF and stepwise regression method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 201-220, March.
    12. Kuei-Hsien Liao, 2014. "From flood control to flood adaptation: a case study on the Lower Green River Valley and the City of Kent in King County, Washington," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 723-750, March.
    13. Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
    14. Benjamin L. Preston & Kirstin Dow & Frans Berkhout, 2013. "The Climate Adaptation Frontier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    15. Holger Hoff & Koko Warner & Laurens M. Bouwer, 2005. "The Role of Financial Services in Climate Adaption in Developing Countries," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(2), pages 196-207.
    16. Ye Yu & Jiang-lin Li & Jin Xie & Chuan Liu, 2016. "Climatic characteristics of thunderstorm days and the influence of atmospheric environment in Northwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 823-838, January.
    17. C. Haque & Ian Burton, 2005. "Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 335-353, July.
    18. Troy Rosencrants & Walker Ashley, 2015. "Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 121-140, August.
    19. Florian Elmer & Isabel Seifert & Heidi Kreibich & Annegret H. Thieken, 2010. "A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 107-124, January.
    20. Madhav L Khandekar, 2004. "Are Climate Model Projections Reliable Enough for Climate Policy?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(3), pages 521-525, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:65-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.