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Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

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  • Chang-Chi Cheng
  • Nien-Sheng Hsu
  • Chih-Chiang Wei

Abstract

The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Chang-Chi Cheng & Nien-Sheng Hsu & Chih-Chiang Wei, 2008. "Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(1), pages 65-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:65-84
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9142-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Szu-Ping Cheng & Ru-Yih Wang, 2004. "Analyzing Hazard Potential of Typhoon Damage by Applying Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 77-103, September.
    2. Stanley Changnon, 2003. "Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes, Not Global Warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 273-290, June.
    3. Cheng-Shang Lee & Li-Rung Huang & Horng-Syi Shen & Shi-Ting Wang, 2006. "A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 37(1), pages 87-105, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Yazdi & S. Salehi Neyshabouri, 2012. "Optimal design of flood-control multi-reservoir system on a watershed scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 629-646, September.
    2. Peng Ye & Xueying Zhang & Ge Shi & Shuhui Chen & Zhiwen Huang & Wei Tang, 2020. "TKRM: A Formal Knowledge Representation Method for Typhoon Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.

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