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Self-Organized Criticality Applied to Natural Hazards

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  • Bruce Malamud
  • Donald Turcotte

Abstract

The concept of self-organizedcriticality evolved from studies of three simplecellular-automata models: the sand-pile, slider-block,and forest-fire models. In each case, there is asteady “input” and the “loss” is associated with afractal (power-law) distribution of “avalanches.” Each of the three models can be associated with animportant natural hazard: the sand-pile model withlandslides, the slider-block model with earthquakes,and the forest-fire model with forest fires. We showthat each of the three natural hazards havefrequency-size statistics that are well approximatedby power-law distributions. The model behaviorsuggests that the recurrence interval for a severeevent can be estimated by extrapolating the observedfrequency-size distribution of small and mediumevents. For example, the recurrence interval for amagnitude seven earthquake can be obtained directlyfrom the observed frequency of occurrence of magnitudefour earthquakes. This concept leads to thedefinition of a seismic intensity factor. Both globaland regional maps of this seismic intensity factor aregiven. In addition, the behavior of the modelssuggests that the risk of occurrence of large eventscan be substantially reduced if small events areencouraged. For example, if small forest fires areallowed to burn, the risk of a large forest fire issubstantially reduced. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Malamud & Donald Turcotte, 1999. "Self-Organized Criticality Applied to Natural Hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 20(2), pages 93-116, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:20:y:1999:i:2:p:93-116
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008014000515
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Puhl, H., 1992. "On the modelling of real sand piles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 295-319.
    2. Drossel, B. & Schwabl, F., 1993. "Forest-fire model with immune trees," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 183-197.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nurulkamal Masseran, 2022. "Power-law behaviors of the severity levels of unhealthy air pollution events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1749-1766, June.
    2. Hernandez, Edward Russel & Sy, Patricia Breanne & Cirunay, Michelle T. & Batac, Rene C., 2024. "Power-law distributions of urban tree cover," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).
    3. Turcotte, Donald L & Malamud, Bruce D, 2004. "Landslides, forest fires, and earthquakes: examples of self-organized critical behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 340(4), pages 580-589.
    4. Karin L. Riley & Matthew P. Thompson & Joe H. Scott & Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, 2018. "A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. I. Georgoudas & G. Sirakoulis & E. Scordilis & I. Andreadis, 2009. "On-chip earthquake simulation model using potentials," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 519-537, September.
    6. Mauro, John C. & Diehl, Brett & Marcellin, Richard F. & Vaughn, Daniel J., 2018. "Workplace accidents and self-organized criticality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 284-289.
    7. Torres-Rojo, Juan Manuel & Bahena-González, Roberto, 2018. "Scale invariant behavior of cropping area losses," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 33-43.
    8. Noskov, M.D. & Malinovski, A.S. & Sack, M. & Schwab, A.J., 2001. "Self-organized criticality in electrical treeing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 85-96.
    9. Wang, Jian & Song, Weiguo & Zheng, Hongyang & Telesca, Luciano, 2010. "Temporal scaling behavior of human-caused fires and their connection to relative humidity of the atmosphere," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 85-89.

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