An integrated approach to the spatial distribution of the coastal infrastructure vulnerability by using coastal vulnerability index and hot spot analysis: a case study of Kusadasi-Selcuk

In this study, a new methodology integrating spatial coastal vulnerability index (CVI) and hot spot analysis was proposed for a comprehensive and holistic coastal infrastructure (natural, built-up and socioeconomic) vulnerability assessment and determination of its spatial distribution. The Selçuk-Kuşadası coastal region, which is located on the Aegean coast of Turkey, was chosen as the case study area. For calculation spatial CVI, eight physical variables (geomorphology, coastal slope, relief, mean seal level, mean tide range, mean wave high, shoreline erosion and accretion) were used. Spatial CVI analyses were performed using basic methods of geographical information systems. CVI results were classified as 1 to 5 across the study area. The spatial distribution of vulnerabilities of coastal infrastructures has statistically tested with hotspot analysis. In conclusion; over 55% of infrastructure falls within high or very high vulnerability classes. It is seen that 57% of the infrastructure in the build-up category, 59% of the natural environment, and more than 42% of the socio-economic infrastructure are located in areas falling into the high or very high vulnerability classes. Additionally, $1.1 billion worth of land assets and a population of approximately 143.000 people are located in areas that fall into the high or very high vulnerability classes. Statistically significant clusters of high vulnerability for historical sites, tourism, roads, land value, population density, and urban areas were determined by hot spot analysis. According to the results of the developed integrated method, suggestions were presented for the preparation of coastal infrastructure vulnerability adaptation strategies.