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Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Danilo Couto de Souza

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Natália Machado Crespo

    (Charles University)

  • Douglas Vieira Silva

    (Universidade de São Paulo
    Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)

  • Lila Mina Harada

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Renan Muinos Parrode Godoy

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Leonardo Moreno Domingues

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Rafael Luiz

    (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters)

  • Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo

    (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters
    São Paulo State University)

  • Daniel Metodiev

    (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters)

  • Marcio Roberto Magalhães Andrade

    (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters)

  • Andrew J. Hartley

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Rafael Cesario Abreu

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Sihan Li

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Fraser C. Lott

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Sarah Sparrow

    (Oxford e-Research Centre)

Abstract

In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two large ensembles of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model that represented the event with and without the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Antecedent rainfall conditions on two different timescales are considered, namely extreme 60-day rainfall (Rx60day) which relates to the soil moisture conditions and extreme 3-day rainfall (Rx3day) which represents landslide triggering heavy rainfall. In the scenario including both natural and human-induced factors the antecedent 60 day rainfall became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20–42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of the homes damaged, 85% of the homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of the deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. In recent years, the region has experienced an increase in population growth and a rise in the proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing in high-risk areas. Guarujá has the highest number of such dwellings, accounting for 34.8%. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Danilo Couto de Souza & Natália Machado Crespo & Douglas Vieira Silva & Lila Mina Harada & Renan Muinos Parrode Godoy & Leonardo Moreno Domingues & Rafael Luiz & Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo & Daniel Me, 2024. "Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 10835-10860, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06621-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06621-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan S. Debortoli & Pedro Ivo M. Camarinha & José A. Marengo & Regina R. Rodrigues, 2017. "An index of Brazil’s vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 557-582, March.
    2. Helen Cristina Dias & Marcelo Fischer Gramani & Carlos Henrique Grohmann & Carlos Bateira & Bianca Carvalho Vieira, 2021. "Statistical-based shallow landslide susceptibility assessment for a tropical environment: a case study in the southeastern Brazilian coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 205-223, August.
    3. Patrick T. Brown, 2023. "When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-11, August.
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