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Expanding the historical "outbreak" climatology between 1880 and 1989

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Listed:
  • Zoe Schroder

    (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University)

  • Tyler Fricker

    (University of Louisiana Monroe)

Abstract

Tornado outbreak climatology is constantly evolving. Modern research highlights the current trends in tornado outbreak activity using the Storm Prediction Center’s tornado database, which dates back to 1950. Here, digitized tornado records over the period of 1880–1989 are used to create a historical climatology of tornado outbreaks. Four hundred and sixty-two unique clusters are identified encompassing more than 4500 tornadoes. The spatial distribution of these clusters follows an L-shaped pattern, with tornadoes extending from Iowa to Oklahoma to Georgia consistent with modern tornado outbreak climatology. The historical tornado clusters show significant upward trends in the total number of clusters, tornadoes, and casualties by decade. Additionally, tornado clusters show similar upward trends seasonally and diurnally. Most clusters occur in March, April, and May and start in the early afternoon hours. The results within this manuscript are consistent with current trends detected in the modern tornado record. Future research will look to combine historical and modern tornado records to develop a more complete climatology of clusters since 1880.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoe Schroder & Tyler Fricker, 2023. "Expanding the historical "outbreak" climatology between 1880 and 1989," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3273-3285, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05986-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05986-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincent Y. S. Cheng & George B. Arhonditsis & David M. L. Sills & William A. Gough & Heather Auld, 2015. "Erratum: A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-1, November.
    2. Vincent Y.S. Cheng & George B. Arhonditsis & David M.L. Sills & William A. Gough & Heather Auld, 2015. "A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Michael K. Tippett & Joel E. Cohen, 2016. "Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, April.
    4. Todd W. Moore, 2019. "Seasonal Frequency and Spatial Distribution of Tornadoes in the United States and Their Relationship to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(4), pages 1033-1051, July.
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