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Spatial and temporal variability in the characteristics of extreme daily rainfalls in Ghana

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  • Holli Capps Herron

    (University of Florida)

  • Peter Waylen

    (University of Florida)

  • Kwadwo Owusu

    (University of Ghana
    University of Ghana)

Abstract

Focus on potentially increased frequency of extreme hydro-climatological events under climate change is intensified by Ghana’s reliance on rainfed agriculture, and the question whether precipitation climatology has returned to conditions prevailing before the regional drought of the 1970s and 80s. This study examines long-term (44–51 years), complete, daily rainfall records from nineteen stations nationally to determine magnitude and frequency of totals in excess of the historical 90th percentile at each station. Results are divided into three sub-populations corresponding to pre-drought, drought, and post-drought periods. Four research questions are addressed; (1) Is there evidence of significant interdecadal scale variability in these variables, (2) are there significant differences in characteristics between periods, (3) are there any distinctive regional patterns in changes, and (4) can findings be extended to various definitions of what constitutes extreme rainfalls? The Mann–Whitney U test determines significant breaks that define the overarching temporal framework of the research. The hypergeometric distribution determines the statistical significance of changes in magnitude and frequency. Exponential, generalized Pareto and Poisson distributions are fit to the magnitude and frequency of post-drought data. Recovery is broadly defined as no difference between pre-drought and post-drought data. Some locations in mid-Ghana have recovered, while coastal areas have not recovered in frequency or magnitude. Outliers correspond to Axim in the southwest and Navrongo in the north. The anomalies at Kete Krachi, located on Lake Volta, may result from its local climatological setting. Contributions of the research include the first comprehensive, national review of the characteristics of magnitude and frequency of large rainfall totals. The outstanding question of whether “climate” has returned to pre-1970 levels has been explicitly addressed in the context of the important facet of precipitation climatology. Results provide some insight into one of the frequently expressed thoughts that climate change/variability may be most sensitively expressed through changes in the frequency of processes/extreme events. Finally, it suggests a potential tool that may be used to estimate risks of extremely rare events, based on the most recent (Period 3), which is a reasonably stationary dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Holli Capps Herron & Peter Waylen & Kwadwo Owusu, 2023. "Spatial and temporal variability in the characteristics of extreme daily rainfalls in Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 655-680, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05876-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05876-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michela Biasutti, 2019. "Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), July.
    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Antonios Mamalakis & James T. Randerson & Jin-Yi Yu & Michael S. Pritchard & Gudrun Magnusdottir & Padhraic Smyth & Paul A. Levine & Sungduk Yu & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, 2021. "Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 143-151, February.
    4. Steve Mauget, 2011. "Time series analysis based on running Mann‐Whitney Z Statistics," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 47-53, January.
    5. Shashidhara Kolavalli & Elizabeth Robinson & Guyslain Ngeleza & Felix Asante, 2012. "Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 14(2), pages 41-78.
    6. Kwadwo Owusu & Peter Waylen, 2013. "Identification of historic shifts in daily rainfall regime, Wenchi, Ghana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 133-147, March.
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