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Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Antonios Mamalakis

    (University of California)

  • James T. Randerson

    (University of California)

  • Jin-Yi Yu

    (University of California)

  • Michael S. Pritchard

    (University of California)

  • Gudrun Magnusdottir

    (University of California)

  • Padhraic Smyth

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • Paul A. Levine

    (University of California)

  • Sungduk Yu

    (Yale University)

  • Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

    (University of California
    University of California)

Abstract

Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The zonally varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rain belt and may allow for more-robust projections of climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Mamalakis & James T. Randerson & Jin-Yi Yu & Michael S. Pritchard & Gudrun Magnusdottir & Padhraic Smyth & Paul A. Levine & Sungduk Yu & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, 2021. "Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 143-151, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00963-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamad Jahja & Ali Mudatstsir & Idawati Supu & Yayu Indriati Arifin & Jayanti Rauf & Masayuki Sakakibara & Tsutomu Yamaguchi & Andi Patiware Metaragakusuma & Ivana Butolo, 2024. "How Effective Are Palm-Fiber-Based Erosion Control Blankets (ECB) against Natural Rainfall?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Yancheng Zhang & Xufeng Zheng & Deming Kong & Hong Yan & Zhonghui Liu, 2021. "Enhanced North Pacific subtropical gyre circulation during the late Holocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Holli Capps Herron & Peter Waylen & Kwadwo Owusu, 2023. "Spatial and temporal variability in the characteristics of extreme daily rainfalls in Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 655-680, May.
    4. Ralph Trancoso & Jozef Syktus & Richard P. Allan & Jacky Croke & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Robin Chadwick, 2024. "Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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