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An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Ma

    (Tianjin University
    Tianjin University)

  • Wenchao Qi

    (Tianjin University
    Tianjin University)

  • Hongshi Xu

    (Zhengzhou University)

  • Kai Zhao

    (Tianjin University
    Tianjin University)

Abstract

Urban floods are significantly affected by interactions between the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics. However, it is unclear how the influencing factors interact with each other in the form of a factor chain to affect the flood generation in urban areas. This study contributes to discussion of key disaster-inducing factors by proposing an integrated quantitative framework based on a tracer-aided urban flood model. First, a tracer-aided model is adopted to simulate flood process for different design return periods. Then, based on the simulation results, the flood volume contribution of the source area (where flooding is generated) to the flood hazard area (where flooding impacts) was determined. Finally, through the variation partition analysis (VPA) approach and a structural equation model (SEM), the key disaster-inducing factor chains and influence strength that affects the flood volume in the flood source area were quantitatively determined. Longkungou drainage district of Haikou City was selected as the study area, for which the simulations were performed to calculate source area flood volume, and the disaster-inducing factor that caused the urban flooding were quantitatively assessed. The results show that the influencing factors interact with each other in the form of a factor chain and affect the flood volume generation in the flood source area. For the key disaster-inducing factor chains based on SEM, rainfall affects flooding inundation and the influence strength is 0.75, while pipe density is the key factor in mitigating flood volume, and the influence strength is 0.32, which is influenced by the impervious area ratio. In addition, compared to the small return period of rainfall storm events, for scenarios with greater rainfall intensity, the influence strength of the catchment characteristics on the cause of floods is reduced. The framework proposed in this study can be used to find key disaster-causing factor chains, which quantitatively reveals the cause of urban flooding and provides a reference for improving early warning systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Ma & Wenchao Qi & Hongshi Xu & Kai Zhao, 2022. "An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1903-1924, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05375-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05375-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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