IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v111y2022i2d10.1007_s11069-021-05117-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

Author

Listed:
  • Y. Umer

    (University of Twente)

  • V. Jetten

    (University of Twente)

  • J. Ettema

    (University of Twente)

  • L. Lombardo

    (University of Twente)

Abstract

Urban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban environments. However, in many developing countries, such high-quality data are scarce. Data that exist are also spatially biased toward airports and urban areas in general, where these locations may not represent flood-prone areas. One way to gain insight into the rainfall data and its spatial patterns is through numerical weather prediction models. As their performance improves, these might serve as alternative rainfall data sources for producing optimal design storms required for flood hazard modeling in data-scarce areas. To gain such insight, we developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) design storms based on the spatial distribution of high-intensity rainfall events simulated at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Firstly, three known storm events (i.e., 25 June 2012, 13 April 2016, and 16 April 2016) that caused the flood hazard in the study area are simulated using the WRF model. Secondly, the potential gridcell events that are able to trigger the localized flood hazard in the catchment are selected and translated to the WRF design storm form using a quantile expression. Finally, three different WRF design storms per event are constructed: Lower, median, and upper quantiles. The results are compared with the design storms of 2- and 10-year return periods constructed based on the alternating-block method to evaluate differences from a flood hazard assessment point of view. The method is tested in the case of Kampala city, Uganda. The comparison of the design storms indicates that the WRF model design storms properties are in good agreement with the alternating-block design storms. Mainly, the differences between the produced flood characteristics (e.g., hydrographs and the number of flood gird cells) when using WRF lower quantiles (WRFLs) versus 2-year and WRF upper quantiles (WRFUs) versus 10-year alternating-block storms are very minimal. The calculated aggregated performance statistics (F scores) for the simulated flood extent of WRF design storms benchmarked with the alternating-block storms also produced a higher score of 0.9 for both WRF lower quantiles versus 2-year and WRF upper quantile versus 10-year alternating-block storm. The result suggested that the WRF design storms can be considered an added value for flood hazard assessment as they are closer to real systems causing rainfall. However, more research is needed on which area can be considered as a representative area in the catchment. The result has practical application for flood risk assessment, which is the core of integrated flood management.

Suggested Citation

  • Y. Umer & V. Jetten & J. Ettema & L. Lombardo, 2022. "Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1813-1844, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:111:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05117-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiang-Jen Wu & Jinn-Chuang Yang & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2011. "Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 117-140, July.
    2. Jia Liu & Jianhua Wang & Shibing Pan & Kewang Tang & Chuanzhe Li & Dawei Han, 2015. "A real-time flood forecasting system with dual updating of the NWP rainfall and the river flow," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1161-1182, June.
    3. Yukiko Hirabayashi & Roobavannan Mahendran & Sujan Koirala & Lisako Konoshima & Dai Yamazaki & Satoshi Watanabe & Hyungjun Kim & Shinjiro Kanae, 2013. "Global flood risk under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 816-821, September.
    4. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Gabriel A. Vecchi & James A. Smith, 2018. "Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7731), pages 384-388, November.
    5. Weili Duan & Bin He & Daniel Nover & Jingli Fan & Guishan Yang & Wen Chen & Huifang Meng & Chuanming Liu, 2016. "Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 401-413, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joowon Im, 2019. "Green Streets to Serve Urban Sustainability: Benefits and Typology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Xin Wen & Ana María Alarcón Ferreira & Lynn M. Rae & Hirmand Saffari & Zafar Adeel & Laura A. Bakkensen & Karla M. Méndez Estrada & Gregg M. Garfin & Renee A. McPherson & Ernesto Franco Vargas, 2022. "A Comprehensive Methodology for Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Floods: An Application to Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-27, October.
    3. Haixing Liu & Yuntao Wang & Chi Zhang & Albert S. Chen & Guangtao Fu, 2018. "Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Susca, T. & Zanghirella, F. & Colasuonno, L. & Del Fatto, V., 2022. "Effect of green wall installation on urban heat island and building energy use: A climate-informed systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    6. Gainbi Park & Zengwang Xu, 2022. "The constituent components and local indicator variables of social vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 95-120, January.
    7. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal, 2021. "Impact of climate change on pastoralists’ resilience and sustainable mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11406-11426, August.
    8. Md. Uzzal Mia & Tahmida Naher Chowdhury & Rabin Chakrabortty & Subodh Chandra Pal & Mohammad Khalid Al-Sadoon & Romulus Costache & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, 2023. "Flood Susceptibility Modeling Using an Advanced Deep Learning-Based Iterative Classifier Optimizer," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Roopam Shukla & Ankit Agarwal & Kamna Sachdeva & Juergen Kurths & P. K. Joshi, 2019. "Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 103-119, January.
    10. S. A. Mashi & A. I. Inkani & Oghenejeabor Obaro & A. S. Asanarimam, 2020. "Community perception, response and adaptation strategies towards flood risk in a traditional African city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1727-1759, September.
    11. Carlynn Fagnant & Avantika Gori & Antonia Sebastian & Philip B. Bedient & Katherine B. Ensor, 2020. "Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1597-1621, November.
    12. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Salhab,Melda, 2020. "People in Harm's Way : Flood Exposure and Poverty in 189 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9447, The World Bank.
    14. Shuhei Yoshimoto & Giriraj Amarnath, 2018. "Application of a flood inundation model to analyze the potential impacts of a flood control plan in Mundeni Aru river basin, Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 491-513, March.
    15. Tim Slack & Vanessa Parks & Lynsay Ayer & Andrew M. Parker & Melissa L. Finucane & Rajeev Ramchand, 2020. "Natech or natural? An analysis of hazard perceptions, institutional trust, and future storm worry following Hurricane Harvey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1207-1224, July.
    16. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Abdur Rahim Hamidi & Jiangwei Wang & Shiyao Guo & Zhongping Zeng, 2020. "Flood vulnerability assessment using MOVE framework: a case study of the northern part of district Peshawar, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 385-408, March.
    18. Álvarez, Xana & Gómez-Rúa, María & Vidal-Puga, Juan, 2019. "Risk prevention of land flood: A cooperative game theory approach," MPRA Paper 91515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Yus Budiyono & Jeroen Aerts & JanJaap Brinkman & Muh Marfai & Philip Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 389-413, January.
    20. Bethany Robinson & Jonathan D. Herman, 2019. "A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 431-448, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:111:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05117-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.