Development of a GIS-based alert system to mitigate flash flood impacts in Asyut governorate, Egypt

Egypt is one Arab country that is vulnerable to flash floods caused by heavy and intensive rainfall. Different locations in Egypt are vulnerable to the hazards of flash floods, especially in Upper Egypt. Throughout history, Egypt witnessed a series of events of flash floods that lead to mortality, damages, and economic losses. The intensity and frequency of flash floods in Egypt vary from year to year according to a number of hydrological and climatological variables. Although several previous flash floods studies have been conducted in Egypt, studies on the governorate of Asyut are still limited. This study integrates the physical and social parameters in order to assess the vulnerability to flash floods. The objectives of this study are to shed light on flash floods in the study area, develop a vulnerability model to determine the regions vulnerable to the impacts of flash floods, and propose a flash flood alert system in the governorate of Asyut in Egypt to mitigate the impacts of flash floods and to avoid the loss of life and property. The AHP (analytical hierarchy process) is used for assigning the optimal criterion weight of the considered vulnerability parameters based on the responses of eight expert respondents to an online Google forms questionnaire. The highest weighted flash floods causative parameters are population density (27.4%), precipitation (22.1%), total population (16.4%), and elevation (10.2%), respectively. The results reveal that Asyut is one of the Egyptian governorates prone to flash floods’ impacts, especially in Dayrut, Al-Qusiyah, and Abnub, urban districts. The findings of this study are expected to be useful to policymakers and responsible authorities for better disaster risk management and for dealing with the flash floods events in the future.