IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v108y2021i3d10.1007_s11069-021-04785-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Dawar Hama Khalid Mohammed

    (Fırat University)

  • Fatih Külahcı

    (Fırat University)

  • Ahmad Muhammed

    (Fırat University)

Abstract

Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric total electron content (TEC) during earthquakes taking into account magnetic effects on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkiye. The ARIMA and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are employed for determining radon gas concentrations by taking into account magnetic effects as an innovative approach. In the study area, relatively small and medium-scale earthquakes have taken place during the observation period. As a result of the investigations, the relationships between each of the parameters and earthquakes are determined; hence, a good relationship is obtained between Rn gas anomaly and micro-seismic activity. In the ionosphere, geomagnetic activity has a primary impact and long duration on TEC distribution, but due to micro-seismic events it has rather small influence. The proposed ARIMA and MCS simulations to detect changes in soil Rn gas concentrations have significant results for detecting micro-seismic activity anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawar Hama Khalid Mohammed & Fatih Külahcı & Ahmad Muhammed, 2021. "Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2493-2512, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:108:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04785-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04785-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04785-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04785-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-419, August.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    4. Muge Akin & Tamer Topal & Steven Kramer, 2013. "A newly developed seismic microzonation model of Erbaa (Tokat, Turkey) located on seismically active eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1411-1442, February.
    5. Ahmad Muhammad & Fatih Külahcı & Pishtiwan Akram, 2020. "Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 979-996, October.
    6. C. Simha & G. Pavan Kumar & P. Mahesh & A. Navaneeth & K. Rao & B. Rastogi & V. Sridhar & A. Shukla, 2014. "Ionospheric disturbances with the time of occurrence, magnitude and location of the earthquake (M6.5) near the Indian subcontinent," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 935-940, January.
    7. T. Kuo & C. Lin & C. Su & C. Liu & C. Lin & C. Chang & C. Chiang, 2011. "Correlating recurrent radon precursors with local earthquake magnitude and crust strain near the Chihshang fault of eastern Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 861-869, November.
    8. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    9. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS‐test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Testing the covariance stationarity of CEE stocks," MPRA Paper 43432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jönsson, Kristian, 2006. "Finite-Sample Stability of the KPSS Test," Working Papers 2006:23, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2012. "Constructing weekly returns based on daily stock market data: A puzzle for empirical research?," MPRA Paper 43431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2010. "The fragility of the KPSS stationarity test," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, June.
    6. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    7. Peter Uchenna Okoye & Chinwendu Christopher Mbakwe & Evelyn Ndifreke Igbo, 2018. "Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
    9. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    10. Presno, Maria Jose & Lopez, Ana Jesus, 2003. "Response surface estimates of stationarity tests with a structural break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 395-399, March.
    11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A New Look at Panel Testing of Stationarity and the PPP Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 467, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    12. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    14. Vasco Gabriel, 2003. "Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 411-435.
    15. Stefano Mainardi, 2018. "Fishing vessel efficiency, skipper skills and hake pricetransmission in a small island economy," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 99(3-4), pages 215-251.
    16. Rachel Rose & Dimitrios Paparas, 2023. "Price Transmission: The Case of the UK Dairy Market," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Zhijie Xiao & Luiz Renato Lima, 2007. "Testing Covariance Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 643-667.
    18. Samuel Showalter & Jeffrey Gropp, 2019. "Validating Weak-form Market Efficiency in United States Stock Markets with Trend Deterministic Price Data and Machine Learning," Papers 1909.05151, arXiv.org.
    19. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing the Power of a Generalization of the KPSS-Tests against Fractionally Integrated Hypotheses," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 23-38, August.
    20. P. S. Sephton, 2010. "Unit roots and purchasing power parity: another kick at the can," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3439-3453.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:108:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04785-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.