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Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Wang

    (Beijing University of Technology
    Beijing University of Technology)

  • Chenhong Xia

    (Beijing University of Technology)

  • Chaofeng Liu

    (Hebei University of Technology)

  • Ziyi Wang

    (Beijing University of Technology)

Abstract

Aiming at solving the difficult problem of inconsistent single-method evaluation results in comprehensive disaster risk assessment, this paper presents an evaluation method based on a combination of the ranking value and the evaluation value. First, the seven methods of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), the set pair analysis (SPA), the improved grey target analysis (IGT), the fuzzy stochastic simulation (FSS), the grey relational degree analysis (GRA), the extension matter element evaluation (EME), and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) are used to conduct urban comprehensive disaster risk assessment. Second, to ensure the degree of correlation between individual evaluation methods and make full use of more information to achieve the purpose of complementary advantages, the Kendall synergy coefficient, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and the comprehensive support coefficient are used as the single-method compatibility consistency test standards. The combined evaluation methods of the cyclic correction model and support model are used to combine the single evaluation results, and the highly coordinated comprehensive disaster risk ranking value and evaluation value are obtained through repeated tests, thus constructing a highly scientific and reasonable dual combination evaluation model. Finally, through analysis and comparison of the final combined ranking and evaluation values of 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions in China under the dual combination mode, it is verified that the dual combination idea can obtain evaluation results with high convergence and credibility, solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation results of multiple methods, provide a new research idea and method for measuring the comprehensive disaster risk of cities, and provide a scientific basis for efficiently serving comprehensive risk prevention management and various urban planning and construction work.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Wang & Chenhong Xia & Chaofeng Liu & Ziyi Wang, 2020. "Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1181-1209, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04210-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04210-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hong Lv & Xinjian Guan & Yu Meng, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1823-1841, September.
    2. Yaolong Liu & Xiaoli Huang & Jin Duan & Huaming Zhang, 2017. "The assessment of traffic accident risk based on grey relational analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1409-1422, September.
    3. Shi Shen & Changxiu Cheng & Changqing Song & Jing Yang & Shanli Yang & Kai Su & Lihua Yuan & Xiaoqiang Chen, 2018. "Spatial distribution patterns of global natural disasters based on biclustering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1809-1820, July.
    4. Chaofeng Liu & Xiangjun Zuo, 2015. "A study on dynamic evaluation of urban integrated natural disaster risk based on vague set and information axiom," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1501-1516, September.
    5. Qiao Hu & Zhenghong Tang & Martha Shulski & Natalie Umphlett & Tarik Abdel-Monem & Frank E. Uhlarik, 2018. "An examination of midwestern US cities’ preparedness for climate change and extreme hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 777-800, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Feng Wu & Wanqiang Xu & Yue Tang & Yanwei Zhang & Chaoran Lin, 2022. "Gray Measure and Spatial Distribution Exploration of Local Emergency Resilience on Compound Disasters," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-20, September.

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