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Prediction of record values by using quantile regression curves and distortion functions

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  • Jorge Navarro

    (Universidad de Murcia)

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to provide a general method based on conditional quantile curves to predict record values from preceding records. The predictions are based on conditional median (or median regression) curves. Moreover, conditional quantiles curves are used to provide confidence bands for these predictions. The method is based on the recently introduced concept of multivariate distorted distributions that are used instead of copulas to represent the dependence structure. This concept allows us to compute the conditional quantile curves in a simple way. The theoretical findings are illustrated with a non-parametric model (standard uniform), two parametric models (exponential and Pareto), and a non-parametric procedure for the general case. A real data set and a simulated case study in reliability are analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Navarro, 2022. "Prediction of record values by using quantile regression curves and distortion functions," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(6), pages 675-706, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metrik:v:85:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s00184-021-00847-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s00184-021-00847-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Grigoriy Volovskiy & Udo Kamps, 2020. "Maximum observed likelihood prediction of future record values," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(4), pages 1072-1097, December.
    4. Grigoriy Volovskiy & Udo Kamps, 2020. "Maximum product of spacings prediction of future record values," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 83(7), pages 853-868, October.
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    2. Antonio Di Crescenzo & Abdolsaeed Toomaj, 2022. "Weighted Mean Inactivity Time Function with Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-30, August.

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