IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/metcap/v24y2022i2d10.1007_s11009-022-09955-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Bivariate Mortality Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Jiao

    (Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ISFA, Laboratoire SAF)

  • Yahia Salhi

    (Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, ISFA, Laboratoire SAF)

  • Shihua Wang

    (School of Mathematical Science, University of Science and Technology of China)

Abstract

The dependence structure of the life statuses plays an important role in the valuation of life insurance products involving multiple lives. Although the mortality of individuals is well studied in the literature, their dependence remains a challenging field. In this paper, the main objective is to introduce a new approach for analyzing the mortality dependence between two individuals in a couple. It is intended to describe in a dynamic framework the joint mortality of married couples in terms of marginal mortality rates. The proposed framework is general and aims to capture, by adjusting some parametric form, the desired effect such as the “broken-heart syndrome”. To this end, we use a well-suited multiplicative decomposition, which will serve as a building block for the framework to relate the dependence structure and the marginals, and we make the link with existing practice of affine mortality models. Finally, given that the framework is general, we propose some illustrative examples and show how the underlying model captures the main stylized facts of bivariate mortality dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Jiao & Yahia Salhi & Shihua Wang, 2022. "Dynamic Bivariate Mortality Modelling," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 917-938, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:24:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-022-09955-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-022-09955-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11009-022-09955-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11009-022-09955-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arkady E. Shemyakin & Heekyung Youn, 2006. "Copula models of joint last survivor analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 211-224, March.
    2. Dufresne, François & Hashorva, Enkelejd & Ratovomirija, Gildas & Toukourou, Youssouf, 2018. "On age difference in joint lifetime modelling with life insurance annuity applications," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 350-371, September.
    3. Kira Henshaw & Corina Constantinescu & Olivier Menoukeu Pamen, 2020. "Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Dependent Coupled Lives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Yahia Salhi & Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond & Julien Tomas, 2016. "A Credibility Approach of the Makeham Mortality Law," Post-Print hal-01232683, HAL.
    5. Hainaut, Donatien & Devolder, Pierre, 2008. "Mortality modelling with Lévy processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 409-418, February.
    6. Stéphane Loisel, 2010. "Understanding, Modeling and Managing Longevity Risk: Key Issues and Main Challenges," Post-Print hal-00517902, HAL.
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Lu, Yang, 2015. "Love and death: A Freund model with frailty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-203.
    8. Lu, Yang, 2017. "Broken-Heart, Common Life, Heterogeneity: Analyzing The Spousal Mortality Dependence," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 837-874, September.
    9. Spreeuw, Jaap & Owadally, Iqbal, 2013. "Investigating the Broken-Heart Effect: a Model for Short-Term Dependence between the Remaining Lifetimes of Joint Lives," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 236-257, September.
    10. Zhang, Yuxin & Brockett, Patrick, 2020. "Modeling stochastic mortality for joint lives through subordinators," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 166-172.
    11. Nicole El Karoui & Monique Jeanblanc & Ying Jiao, 2015. "Density approach in modelling successive defaults," Post-Print hal-00870492, HAL.
    12. Luciano, Elisa & Spreeuw, Jaap & Vigna, Elena, 2008. "Modelling stochastic mortality for dependent lives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 234-244, October.
    13. Russo, Vincenzo & Giacometti, Rosella & Ortobelli, Sergio & Rachev, Svetlozar & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Calibrating affine stochastic mortality models using term assurance premiums," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-60, July.
    14. Salhi, Yahia & Thérond, Pierre-E., 2018. "Age-Specific Adjustment Of Graduated Mortality," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 543-569, May.
    15. LUCIANO, Elisa & VIGNA, Elena, 2008. "Mortality risk via affine stochastic intensities: calibration and empirical relevance," MPRA Paper 59627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yang Lu, 2017. "Broken-Heart, Common Life, Heterogeneity: Analyzing the Spousal Mortality Dependence," Post-Print hal-03583117, HAL.
    17. Blackburn, Craig & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Consistent dynamic affine mortality models for longevity risk applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 64-73.
    18. Christophette Blanchet-Scalliet & Diana Dorobantu & Yahia Salhi, 2019. "A Model-Point Approach to Indifference Pricing of Life Insurance Portfolios with Dependent Lives," Post-Print hal-01258645, HAL.
    19. Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
    20. Christophette Blanchet-Scalliet & Diana Dorobantu & Yahia Salhi, 2019. "A Model-Point Approach to Indifference Pricing of Life Insurance Portfolios with Dependent Lives," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 423-448, June.
    21. Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Haberman, Steven, 2007. "Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 339-361, November.
    22. Min Ji & Mary Hardy & Johnny Siu-Hang Li, 2011. "Markovian Approaches to Joint-Life Mortality," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 357-376.
    23. Hoang Pham, 2008. "Mortality Modeling Perspectives," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Hoang Pham (ed.), Recent Advances in Reliability and Quality in Design, chapter 25, pages 509-516, Springer.
    24. El Karoui, Nicole & Jeanblanc, Monique & Jiao, Ying, 2010. "What happens after a default: The conditional density approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 1011-1032, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ying Jiao & Yahia Salhi & Shihua Wang, 2021. "Dynamic Bivariate Mortality Modelling," Working Papers hal-03244324, HAL.
    2. Kira Henshaw & Corina Constantinescu & Olivier Menoukeu Pamen, 2020. "Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Dependent Coupled Lives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, February.
    3. Jevtić, P. & Hurd, T.R., 2017. "The joint mortality of couples in continuous time," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 90-97.
    4. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    5. Elisa Luciano & Jaap Spreeuw & Elena Vigna, 2012. "Evolution of coupled lives' dependency across generations and pricing impact," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 258, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    6. Joanna Dębicka & Stanisław Heilpern & Agnieszka Marciniuk, 2023. "Pricing Marriage Insurance with Mortality Dependence," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 15(1), pages 31-64, March.
    7. Apicella, Giovanna & Dacorogna, Michel M, 2016. "A General framework for modelling mortality to better estimate its relationship with interest rate risks," MPRA Paper 75788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gourieroux, Christian & Lu, Yang, 2015. "Love and death: A Freund model with frailty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-203.
    9. Albrecher Hansjörg & Bladt Martin & Müller Alaric J. A., 2023. "Joint lifetime modeling with matrix distributions," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Chen, Li & Lin, Luyao & Lu, Yi & Parker, Gary, 2017. "Analysis of survivorship life insurance portfolios with stochastic rates of return," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 16-31.
    11. Kira Henshaw & Waleed Hana & Corina Constantinescu & Dalia Khalil, 2023. "Dependence Modelling of Lifetimes in Egyptian Families," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    12. Tat Wing Wong & Mei Choi Chiu & Hoi Ying Wong, 2017. "Managing Mortality Risk With Longevity Bonds When Mortality Rates Are Cointegrated," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 987-1023, September.
    13. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2017. "Retirement spending and biological age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 58-76.
    14. Yang Chang & Michael Sherris, 2018. "Longevity Risk Management and the Development of a Value-Based Longevity Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Gobbi, Fabio & Kolev, Nikolai & Mulinacci, Sabrina, 2021. "Ryu-type extended Marshall-Olkin model with implicit shocks and joint life insurance applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 342-358.
    16. Stefan Tappe & Stefan Weber, 2014. "Stochastic mortality models: an infinite-dimensional approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 209-248, January.
    17. Ventura-Marco, Manuel & Vidal-Meliá, Carlos & Pérez-Salamero González, Juan Manuel, 2023. "Joint life care annuities to help retired couples to finance the cost of long-term care," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 122-139.
    18. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    19. Elisa Luciano & Jaap Spreeuw & Elena Vigna, 2016. "Spouses’ Dependence across Generations and Pricing Impact on Reversionary Annuities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Philippe Artzner & Karl-Theodor Eisele & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Insurance-Finance Arbitrage," Papers 2005.11022, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:24:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-022-09955-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.