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Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Author

Listed:
  • Arulalan T

    (Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology
    India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India)

  • Krishna AchutaRao

    (Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology
    Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Ambuj D Sagar

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Arulalan T & Krishna AchutaRao & Ambuj D Sagar, 2023. "Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03527-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03527-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Declan Conway, 2011. "Adapting climate research for development in Africa," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 428-450, May.
    2. Jonathan Chambers, 2020. "Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 539-558, November.
    3. Adam H. Sobel, 2021. "Usable climate science is adaptation science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-11, May.
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