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Evaluation and analysis of spatio-temporal variation of water resources carrying capacity and restraining factor: a case study in Anhui Province, China

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  • Wentao Xu

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources
    Hohai University)

  • Junliang Jin

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Jianyun Zhang

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Yanli Liu

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Zhangkang Shu

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Guoqing Wang

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Zhenxin Bao

    (Hohai University
    Yangtze River Protection and Green Development Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Cuishan Liu

    (Hohai University
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Tiesheng Guan

    (Hohai University
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Ruimin He

    (Hohai University
    Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources)

Abstract

Assessment and analysis of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide practical guidance for regional water resources planning and management. Taking Anhui Province as an example, an evaluation indicator system is established from five aspects: water resource, society, economy, eco-environment and disaster, entropy weighting method and CRITIC method is combined to calculate the comprehensive weight of indicators. The GRA-TOPSIS model is adopted to evaluate regional WRCC, and the obstacle diagnosis model is used to identify the main factors limiting the improvement of WRCC. Additionally, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal changes of water resource, water resource use efficiency and population, and also examines whether the frequent drought disasters in Anhui Province pose a significant threat to the WRCC. The results show that: (1) The overall WRCC in Anhui Province shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a widening disparity among cities, particularly in southern Anhui Province. (2) Per capita water resources, surface water resources, groundwater resources, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, ecological water consumption and forest coverage rate are the main obstacles for the indicator layer, water resource is the main obstacle for the subsystem layer. (3) The spatio-temporal distribution of water resources in Anhui province is uneven, but the utilization efficiency of water resources is increasing year by year, and drought disasters impact the WRCC in Anhui Province but do not pose a significant threat. This study can provide scientific reference for the development and transformation mode of different regions in Anhui Province and realize the “five-in-one” sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Wentao Xu & Junliang Jin & Jianyun Zhang & Yanli Liu & Zhangkang Shu & Guoqing Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Cuishan Liu & Tiesheng Guan & Ruimin He, 2024. "Evaluation and analysis of spatio-temporal variation of water resources carrying capacity and restraining factor: a case study in Anhui Province, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:29:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11027-024-10143-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-024-10143-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huaiyin Jiang & Gang He, 2023. "Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Influencing Factors—Anhui Province as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Abdulnoor A. J. Ghanim & Ahmed M. Al-Areeq & Mohammed Benaafi & Mohammed S. Al-Suwaiyan & Amran A. Al Aghbari & Mana Alyami, 2023. "Mapping Groundwater Potential Zones in the Habawnah Basin of Southern Saudi Arabia: An AHP- and GIS-based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Sharareh Pourebrahim & Mehrdad Hadipour & Zahra Emlaei & Hamidreza Heidari & Choo Ta Goh & Khai Ern Lee, 2023. "Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on the Ecological Footprint for the Sustainable Development of Alborz, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
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