Spatial and Temporal Divergence of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Hubei Province, China, from the Perspective of Three Major Urban Agglomerations

Water resource carrying capacity is indispensable for sustainable development, acting as a crucial determinant for harmonizing ecological preservation with socio-economic development. This study centers on Hubei Province, which is an important water conservation area in the Yangtze River Basin and is one of the core water source areas for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and evaluates the water resource carrying capacity of the three major urban agglomerations in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2020 based on the four dimensions of water resources, economics, society, and ecology, using the entropy weighting method and the TOPSIS model to construct an evaluation index system. We then employ the kernel density estimation method, ArcGIS visualization, and the Dagum Gini coefficient method to perform a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal differences, dynamic evolution, and contribution sources. The results show that (1) the water resource carrying capacity of Hubei Province as a whole increased from a severe overload to overload level during the study period. The water resource carrying capacity of the three major urban agglomerations shows a regional distribution pattern where the Yi-Jing-Jing-En agglomeration’s capacity surpasses that of the Wuhan urban agglomeration, which is bigger than Xiang-Shi-Sui-Shen urban agglomeration. A lower ecological water use rate primarily constrains the enhancement of the carrying capacity of water resources in Hubei Province. (2) The kernel density estimation reveals an increase in the overall water resource carrying capacity across Hubei Province’s three major urban agglomerations during the study period, alongside a pronounced trend towards polarization. (3) While the overall Gini coefficient, indicating an imbalance in water resource carrying capacity in Hubei Province, remains high, it demonstrates a declining trend, suggesting a growing disparity in water resource carrying capacity across the province’s three major urban agglomerations. Hubei Province’s water resource carrying capacity faces challenges of an overall imbalance and localized vulnerability. Strategies should aim to enhance synergy, address these deficiencies directly, and devise targeted measures tailored to the distinct features of various urban clusters.