IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v25y2020i1d10.1007_s11027-019-09861-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zunfu Lv

    (Zhejiang A & F University
    Zhejiang A & F University)

  • Feifei Li

    (Zhejiang A & F University)

  • Guoquan Lu

    (Zhejiang A & F University)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on spring and summer maize (Zea mays) yield and evaluates several adaptation measures to overcome the negative impact of climate change on maize production in China. The results showed that the grain-filling duration of maize would be shortened 6–15 days in the future as a result of climate change. Thus, potential maize yield would decrease by 2–32%, and rainfed maize yield would decrease by 0–24% during 2010–2099 relative to 1976–2005. In response to climate change, adaptive measures should be taken to overcome its projected impact. The adoption of new cultivars while maintaining the same pre-flowering and post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would help to improve potential maize yield by 50–61% in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) and would be a better choice for high yields in the future. The cultivars that would maintain the same post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would be a better choice than the cultivars that would maintain the pre-flowing periods for summer maize in China. Adjusting sowing dates would be another important way to extend post-flowering periods and further improve maize yield. If the maize cultivar currently used was adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 2–25%. If future maize cultivars that maintained the growing period even as warmer temperatures accelerate phenological development were adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 0–8.9%. The interactive effect of sowing and cultivars was quantified. Based on the findings of this study, future maize cultivars maintaining the growing period were adopted, and delaying the sowing date could still improve potential maize yield worldwide. Two regional adaptation strategies to climate change could offset the potential reduction of maize production worldwide, which would provide farmers and policy-makers with explicit guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Zunfu Lv & Feifei Li & Guoquan Lu, 2020. "Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-019-09861-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09861-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-019-09861-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-019-09861-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
    2. Jones, Peter G. & Thornton, Philip K., 2013. "Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-5.
    3. Xiong, Wei & Holman, Ian & Conway, Declan & Lin, Erda & Li, Yue, 2008. "A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 365-380.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2011. "The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 793-801, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu & Jianzhao Tang & Bin Wang & Yanjun Shen & Jiansheng Cao & Puyu Feng, 2022. "Projecting future changes in extreme climate for maize production in the North China Plain and the role of adjusting the sowing date," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Vanalli, Chiara & Radici, Andrea & Casagrandi, Renato & Gatto, Marino & Bevacqua, Daniele, 2024. "Phenological and epidemiological impacts of climate change on peach production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Shuyan Li & Junfang Zhao & Junling Li & Ruixin Shao & Hongping Li & Wensong Fang & Liting Hu & Tianxue Liu, 2022. "Inter- and Mixed Cropping of Different Varieties Improves High-Temperature Tolerance during Flowering of Summer Maize," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Zhou, Lifeng & Han, Xinlong & Yang, Qiliang & Feng, Hao & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2024. "Optimizing sowing date to mitigate loss of growing degree days and enhance crop water productivity of groundwater-irrigated spring maize," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & Deli Liu, 2022. "Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    2. Qaisar Saddique & Huanjie Cai & Jiatun Xu & Ali Ajaz & Jianqiang He & Qiang Yu & Yunfei Wang & Hui Chen & Muhammad Imran Khan & De Li Liu & Liang He, 2020. "Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1523-1543, December.
    3. Jonathan E. Suk & Kristie L. Ebi & David Vose & Willy Wint & Neil Alexander & Koen Mintiens & Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    5. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    6. Xinyu Dong & Peng Yuan & Yonghui Song & Wenxuan Yi, 2021. "Optimizing Green-Gray Infrastructure for Non-Point Source Pollution Control under Future Uncertainties," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Rungruang Janta & Laksanara Khwanchum & Pakorn Ditthakit & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh, 2022. "Water Yield Alteration in Thailand’s Pak Phanang Basin Due to Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    9. Euler, Michael & Hoffmann, Munir P. & Fathoni, Zakky & Schwarze, Stefan, 2016. "Exploring yield gaps in smallholder oil palm production systems in eastern Sumatra, Indonesia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 111-119.
    10. Dunnett, A. & Shirsath, P.B. & Aggarwal, P.K. & Thornton, P. & Joshi, P.K. & Pal, B.D. & Khatri-Chhetri, A. & Ghosh, J., 2018. "Multi-objective land use allocation modelling for prioritizing climate-smart agricultural interventions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 381(C), pages 23-35.
    11. DeCicco, John M., 2013. "Factoring the car-climate challenge: Insights and implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-392.
    12. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    13. Parisa Paymard & Mohammad Bannayan & Reza Sadrabadi Haghighi, 2018. "Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1237-1255, April.
    14. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    15. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    16. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    17. Wang, Weiguang & Yu, Zhongbo & Zhang, Wei & Shao, Quanxi & Zhang, Yiwei & Luo, Yufeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Xu, Junzeng, 2014. "Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: Historical simulation and future projections," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 249-261.
    18. Welikhe, Pauline & Essamuah-Quansah, Joseph & Boote, Kenneth & Asseng, Senthold & El Afandi, Gamal, 2016. "Impact of Climate Change on Corn Yields in Alabama," Professional Agricultural Workers Journal (PAWJ), Professional Agricultural Workers Conference, vol. 4(01), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Sano, Fuminori & Wada, Kenichi & Akimoto, Keigo & Oda, Junichiro, 2015. "Assessments of GHG emission reduction scenarios of different levels and different short-term pledges through macro- and sectoral decomposition analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 153-165.
    20. Qi Zhang & Jiquan Zhang, 2016. "Drought hazard assessment in typical corn cultivated areas of China at present and potential climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1323-1331, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-019-09861-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.