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Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise

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  • G. Lacerda
  • C. Silva
  • C. Pimenteira
  • R. Kopp
  • R. Grumback
  • L. Rosa
  • M. Freitas

Abstract

This study provides guidelines for strategic management in industrial oil plants linked to uncertainties of climate change through the development of integrated planning methodology with focus on coastal flooding events caused by relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research site is in Redonda Island, located in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil, and since 1960, it constitutes an industrial oil plant facility. The region suffers interaction with storms and meteorological tides from extratropical cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean, being vulnerable to risks of disasters, floods, and coastal erosion. A Program on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Relative Sea Level Rise (“Programa de Avaliação e Adaptação às Vulnerabilidades de Elevação do Nível Relativo do Mar—PAAVENRM”) was developed to avoid compromising the regional and local development in the industrial system of the island, which is an ad hoc instrument designed to anticipate and reduce risks, damages, and losses by occurrence of extreme climatic events in coastal areas prone to flooding caused by RSLR. Results from computer simulation modeling indicate 37 prospective qualitative scenarios that consolidate the conditions of future climate vulnerability of the plant, starting from United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) information for RSLR up to 2100. Three quantitative forecasting scenarios were simulated, under boundary conditions preset for different altimetric ranges subject to submersion, based upon ordinary and extraordinary tides measured in the area in relation to RSLR, which allowed the evaluation of the industrial infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, three thematic maps were elaborated for the planning of specific coastal protection interventions. Percentages of physical damage and property losses were estimated. The importance of applying guidelines for medium and long-term corporate strategy management, integrating the risk of flooding, the rigging of civil defense systems, meteorology, and of the plans, programs, and existing systems and others to be developed is highlighted. From this perspective, the proposed scenarios help to identify the most relevant alternatives for mitigation and adaptation under technical criteria for decision making in the study area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • G. Lacerda & C. Silva & C. Pimenteira & R. Kopp & R. Grumback & L. Rosa & M. Freitas, 2014. "Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(7), pages 1041-1062, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:7:p:1041-1062
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9459-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Rice & R. Moss & P. Runci & K. Anderson & E. Malone, 2012. "Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(7), pages 805-819, October.
    2. Ernest Molua, 2009. "Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of cameroon: selection of household-level protection options," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(8), pages 721-735, December.
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    1. Julian David Hunt & Edward Byers, 2019. "Reducing sea level rise with submerged barriers and dams in Greenland," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 779-794, June.
    2. Frans Klijn & Bruno Merz & Edmund Penning-Rowsell & Zbigniew Kundzewicz, 2015. "Preface: climate change proof flood risk management," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 837-843, August.
    3. Mehdi Hafezi & Oz Sahin & Rodney A. Stewart & Brendan Mackey, 2018. "Creating a Novel Multi-Layered Integrative Climate Change Adaptation Planning Approach Using a Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-30, November.

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