IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jknowl/v15y2024i2d10.1007_s13132-023-01264-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the Relationship Between FDI, Natural Resources, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan: Does Political (in) Stability Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Riazullah Shinwari

    (Central South University)

  • Imran Zakeria

    (Central South University)

  • Muhammad Usman

    (Wuhan University)

  • Muhammad Sadiq

    (Academy of Sciences of Afghanistan)

Abstract

International community assistance, foreign investment, and the extraction of natural resources enabled the reconstruction of institutions, and financial systems and paved the way to accelerate economic growth. Yet, due to the country’s recent political upheaval, FDI has stalled, and the citizens of the nation are now in a precarious economic condition. The present study explores the foreign direct investment (FDI) impact and natural resource abundance on GDP growth in Afghanistan over the period 2001Q1–2020Q4. We have applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test techniques and confirmed long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. The empirical result has demonstrated a constructive control of FDI on GDP, offering evidence that foreign investments follow the (FDI-lead-growth) hypothesis and have contributed to long-term and short-term economic growth. Nonetheless, the influence of FDI inflows on economic growth varies with the magnitude of the natural resource industry. At the same time, the Granger causality testing supported a reciprocal causality between GDP growth, natural resources, and FDI in the long and short run. These research results have imperative policy ramifications for scholars and governments seeking to attain sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Riazullah Shinwari & Imran Zakeria & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Sadiq, 2024. "Revisiting the Relationship Between FDI, Natural Resources, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan: Does Political (in) Stability Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5174-5203, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:15:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13132-023-01264-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-023-01264-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13132-023-01264-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13132-023-01264-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suresh Babu, M. & Bhaskaran, Vandana & Venkatesh, Manasa, 2016. "Does inequality hamper long run growth? Evidence from Emerging Economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 99-113.
    2. Arshad Hayat & Muhammad Tahir, 2020. "Foreign direct investment, natural resources and economic growth: a threshold model approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(5), pages 929-944, September.
    3. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Zhou, Jing, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 172-188.
    4. Erum, Naila & Hussain, Shahzad, 2019. "Corruption, natural resources and economic growth: Evidence from OIC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Flachaire, Emmanuel & García-Peñalosa, Cecilia & Konte, Maty, 2014. "Political versus economic institutions in the growth process," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 212-229.
    6. Richard Grabowski & Sharmistha Self, 2022. "Role of agricultural productivity growth in economic development: the neglected impact on institutional quality in Africa," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 681-700, September.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Danish & Recep Ulucak, 2020. "The pathway toward pollution mitigation: Does institutional quality make a difference?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 3571-3583, December.
    9. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    10. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    12. Namazi, Mehdi & Mohammadi, Emran, 2018. "Natural resource dependence and economic growth: A TOPSIS/DEA analysis of innovation efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 544-552.
    13. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    14. Singhal, Shelly & Choudhary, Sangita & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-261.
    15. Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum & Muhammad Usman & Rakhshanda Kousar & Javier Cifuentes-Faura & Magdalena Radulescu & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente, 2022. "How Do Institutional Quality, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, and Financial Development Reduce Ecological Footprint without Hindering Economic Growth Trajectory? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, October.
    16. Khan, Zeeshan & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Nawaz, Kishwar, 2022. "Natural resources and economic performance: Evaluating the role of political risk and renewable energy consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Shi Young Lee & Eun Jung Lim & Qinglei Meng, 2019. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance in China: The Role of Education, FDI, and Trade," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 337-350, January.
    18. Sikiru Jimoh Babalola & Saidatulakmal Mohd & Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Hammed Onikola, 2019. "Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment, Aid And Trade On Economic Growth In Nigeria," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 15-31, Fall.
    19. Slesman, Ly & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Ra'ees, Wahabuddin, 2015. "Institutional infrastructure and economic growth in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-226.
    20. Lee, Jong-Wha & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2018. "Service sector productivity and economic growth in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 247-263.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    22. Victor Owusu-Nantwi & Christopher Erickson, 2019. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth in South America," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 383-398, March.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    24. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2006. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 142-162, October.
    25. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    26. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Okumus, Ilyas & Sinha, Avik, 2019. "An empirical note on comparison between resource abundance and resource dependence in resource abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    27. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital-Account Liberalization, the Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 91-96, May.
    28. Weijun Wu & Ling Yuan & Xiaoming Wang & Xiaping Cao & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Does FDI Drive Economic Growth? Evidence from City Data in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(11), pages 2594-2607, September.
    29. Daniel Sakyi & John Egyir, 2017. "Effects of trade and FDI on economic growth in Africa: an empirical investigation," Transnational Corporations Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 66-87, April.
    30. Osei, Michael J. & Kim, Jaebeom, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 154-161.
    31. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    32. Rosa Forte & Rui Moura, 2013. "The Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment On The Host Country'S Economic Growth: Theory And Empirical Evidence," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(03), pages 1-28.
    33. Atif Jahanger & Muhammad Usman & Daniel Balsalobre‐Lorente, 2022. "Linking institutional quality to environmental sustainability," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1749-1765, December.
    34. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    35. Houssem Eddine Chebbi, 2010. "Agriculture and economic growth in Tunisia," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(1), pages 63-78, February.
    36. Usman, Muhammad & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2022. "Environmental concern in the era of industrialization: Can financial development, renewable energy and natural resources alleviate some load?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    37. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    38. Ekananda, Mahjus, 2022. "Role of macroeconomic determinants on the natural resource commodity prices: Indonesia futures volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    39. Fally, Thibault, 2022. "Generalized Separability and Integrability: Consumer Demand with a Price Aggregator," CEPR Discussion Papers 17249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Temiz, Dilek & Gökmen, Aytaç, 2014. "FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 145-154.
    41. Cheng, Zhonghua & Li, Lianshui & Liu, Jun, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, resource industry dependence and economic green growth in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    42. Abou-Ali, Hala & Abdelfattah, Yasmine M., 2013. "Integrated paradigm for sustainable development: A panel data study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 334-342.
    43. Saileja Mohanty & Narayan Sethi, 2019. "Outward FDI, human capital and economic growth in BRICS countries: an empirical insight," Transnational Corporations Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 235-249, July.
    44. Adams, Samuel & Klobodu, Edem Kwame Mensah, 2017. "Capital flows and the distribution of income in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 169-178.
    45. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2019. "Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Nexus?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 455-471, October.
    46. Tiba, Sofien & Frikha, Mohamed, 2019. "The controversy of the resource curse and the environment in the SDGs background: The African context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 437-452.
    47. Robi Kurniawan & Shunsuke Managi, 2018. "Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Indonesia: An Assessment," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 339-361, September.
    48. Ge, Yiqing & Tang, Ke, 2020. "Commodity prices and GDP growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    49. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    50. Houssem Eddine Chebbi, 2010. "Agriculture and economic growth in Tunisia," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(1), pages 63-78, February.
    51. Shujie Yao, 2006. "On economic growth, FDI and exports in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 339-351.
    52. Wu, Jyun-Yi & Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2012. "Foreign direct investment and income inequality: Does the relationship vary with absorptive capacity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2183-2189.
    53. Rabail Amna Intisar & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen & Rakhshanda Kousar & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum, 2020. "Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, April.
    54. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    55. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. "Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-130, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Zeeshan & Hussain, Muzzammil & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Yang, Siqun & Jiao, Zhilun, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, technological innovation, and human capital nexus with financial development: A case study of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    4. Debashis Chakraborty & Jaydeep Mukherjee & Tanaya Sinha, 2012. "Is there any Long-run Relationship between India’s Current and Capital Account Balance? A Time Series Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 433-447, October.
    5. Belloumi, Mounir, 2014. "The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 269-287.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2013. "Exploring the nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth, energy prices and technology innovation in Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-305.
    7. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    9. Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Gearhart, Richard S., 2018. "Resource curse? The case of Kern County," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 446-459.
    10. Yilanci, Veli & Aslan, Murat & Ozgur, Onder, 2021. "Disaggregated analysis of the curse of natural resources in most natural resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Esin Cakan, 2018. "Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of Turkey," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 71-80, March.
    12. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    13. Zhou, Bingjun & Huang, Yan & Gao, Ke & Luo, Chunyang, 2024. "How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Jemaa, Mohamed Mekki Ben, 2015. "On the causal nexus of road transport CO2 emissions and macroeconomic variables in Tunisia: Evidence from combined cointegration tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-100.
    15. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes And Total Labor Productivity In Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 82435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    16. Bibhuti Sarker & Farid Khan, 2020. "Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2019. "Modelling the relationship between energy intensity and GDP for European countries: An historical perspective (1800–2000)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 114-134.
    18. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    19. Mariana Hatmanu & Cristina Cautisanu & Mihaela Ifrim, 2020. "The Impact of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and European Business Climate on Economic Growth in Romania: An ARDL Approach with Structural Breaks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Spain," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:15:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13132-023-01264-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.