IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v38y2014i2p269-287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model

Author

Listed:
  • Belloumi, Mounir

Abstract

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and economic growth in host countries remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature and met with renewed interest in recent years mainly for countries suffering from unemployment problems and lack of technological progress. This paper examines this issue for Tunisia by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration for the period from 1970 to 2008. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when foreign direct investment is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth, from economic growth to FDI, from trade to economic growth and from economic growth to trade in the short run. Even though there is a widespread belief that FDI can generate positive spillover externalities for the host country, our empirical results fail to confirm this belief for the case of Tunisia. They go against the generally accepted idea considering the positive impact of FDI on economic growth to be automatic. The results found for Tunisia can be generalized and compared to other developing countries which share a common experience in attracting FDI and trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Belloumi, Mounir, 2014. "The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 269-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:38:y:2014:i:2:p:269-287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S093936251400003X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1992. "Intermediation and the equilibrium allocation of investment capital : Implications for economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 409-432, December.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    5. Fosfuri, Andrea & Motta, Massimo & Ronde, Thomas, 2001. "Foreign direct investment and spillovers through workers' mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 205-222, February.
    6. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Bengoa, Marta & Sanchez-Robles, Blanca, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and growth: new evidence from Latin America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 529-545, September.
    8. Amy Jocelyn Glass & Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Multinational Firms and Technology Transfer," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(4), pages 495-513, December.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
    10. de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-151, January.
    11. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    12. Li, Xiaoying & Liu, Xiaming, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 393-407, March.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export‐led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
    14. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    15. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    16. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    17. Teame Ghirmay, 2004. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub‐Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 16(3), pages 415-432.
    18. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    19. Wang, Jian-Ye & Blomstrom, Magnus, 1992. "Foreign investment and technology transfer : A simple model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 137-155, January.
    20. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    21. Jutta Günther, 2002. "FDI as a multiplier of modern technology in Hungarian industry," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 37(5), pages 263-269, September.
    22. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    23. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1992. "What Explains Developing Country Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    26. Mr. Harm Zebregs, 1998. "Can the Neoclassical Model Explain the Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment Across Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 1998/139, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
    28. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
    29. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    30. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    31. repec:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:2:p:153-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Morley, Bruce, 2006. "Causality between economic growth and immigration: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 72-76, January.
    33. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    34. Teame Ghirmay & Richard Grabowski & Subhash Sharma, 2001. "Exports, investment, efficiency and economic growth in LDC: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 689-700.
    35. Usha Nair‐Reichert & Diana Weinhold, 2001. "Causality Tests for Cross‐Country Panels: a New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-171, May.
    36. Lawrence Kaufmann, 1997. "A Model of Spillovers Through Labor Recruitment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 13-33.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    38. V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford, "undated". "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: New Hypotheses and Evidence," Working Papers ec7/96, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
    39. Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2001. "Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2111-2125, December.
    40. Ana Cuadros & Vicente Orts & Maite Alguacil, 2004. "Openness and Growth: Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 167-192.
    41. Shujie Yao, 2006. "On economic growth, FDI and exports in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 339-351.
    42. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4367.
    43. Xu, Bin, 2000. "Multinational enterprises, technology diffusion, and host country productivity growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 477-493, August.
    44. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
    45. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2009. "FDI and growth: a new look at a still puzzling issue," Post-Print hal-00798473, HAL.
    46. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Belloumi, Mounir, 2012. "The relationship between Trade, FDI and Economic growth in Tunisia: An application of autoregressive distributed lag model," Conference papers 332240, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Alshehry, 2018. "The Impacts of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Burcu ŞENALP, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Economic Freedom: A Literature Survey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(2), pages 301-336, December.
    4. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    5. Verónica Cañal-Fernández & Julio Tascón Fernández, 2018. "The long run impact of foreign direct investment, exports, imports and GDP: evidence for Spain from an ARDL approach," Working Papers 0128, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Maha Kalai & Nahed Zghidi, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: Empirical Analysis Using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 397-421, March.
    7. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    8. Rosemary Stanley Taylor, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth. Analysis of sectoral foreign direct investment in Tanzania," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 699-717, December.
    9. Amal BEN ABDALLAH, 2024. "The Relationship Between Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, and Economic Growth in Middle East and North of Africa Region: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model vs. Vector Error Correct," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 1118-1141, March.
    10. Syed Ali Raza & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2018. "Influence of Systemic Banking Crises and Currency Crises on the FDI-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 572-589, June.
    11. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA-GRES) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA-GRES), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2008-17, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    12. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from New EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-67, June.
    13. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.
    14. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    15. Alaya MAROUANE & Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2008. "The law of growth and attraction: an endogenous model of absorptive capacities, FDI and income for MENA countries," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2008-27, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    16. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    17. Silvio Traverso & Guido Bonatti, 2015. "Education and FDI: An Insight from US Outflows," Journal of Social Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 101-116.
    18. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2009. "FDI and growth: A new look at a still puzzling issue," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2009-13, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    19. Latif Khalilov & Chae-Deug Yi, 2020. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Real Driving Force of Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 273-299, September.
    20. Akintoye V. Adejumo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Green Growth in Nigeria: Any Spillovers?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/078, African Governance and Development Institute..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Trade; Economic growth; ARDL cointegration; Tunisia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:38:y:2014:i:2:p:269-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.