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Volatility relation between credit default swap and stock market: new empirical tests

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  • Miroslav Mateev

    (American University in the Emirates)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between volatility of CDS and stock prices using a sample of 109 European investment-grade companies, during the period of January 2012 to January 2016. To analyse the volatility relation between CDS and stock prices and its time persistence, we use the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. We also test the volatility spillover hypothesis and investigate the direction of the spillover effect using the BEKK-GARCH model. We find strong evidence in support of the hypothesis that the volatility of CDS and stock prices across European investment-grade companies can be modelled under the dynamic conditional correlation assumption. When we split the volatility into two components, namely, ARCH-effect (that is, short-run persistence of shocks) and GARCH-effect (that is, long-run persistence), we find that, in general, the persistence of correlation is statistically significant, while the impact of innovations (shocks) on correlation is not. Our tests of the volatility spillover hypothesis provide new evidence that the volatility spillover is bi-directional, with the predominant leadership of the European CDS market over the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Mateev, 2019. "Volatility relation between credit default swap and stock market: new empirical tests," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 681-712, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:43:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-018-9467-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9467-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Manicaro, 2023. "Sectoral and Regional Volatility Connectedness: The Case of CDS Spreads and Equities," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(4), pages 1-8, April.
    2. Faruk Balli & Hatice O. Balli & Mudassar Hasan & Russell Gregory-Allen, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty spillover effects on sectoral equity returns of New Zealand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 670-686, October.
    3. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2023. "CDS and equity markets’ volatility linkages: lessons from the EMU crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1259-1281, April.
    4. Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hkiri, Besma & Hamed Al Yahyaee, Khamis, 2019. "Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 101-110.
    5. Laura Ballester & Ana Mónica Escrivá & Ana González-Urteaga, 2021. "The Nexus between Sovereign CDS and Stock Market Volatility: New Evidence," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh, 2024. "From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 665-707, September.
    7. Katz, Yuri A. & Biem, Alain, 2021. "Time-resolved topological data analysis of market instabilities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    8. Veysel Karagol, 2023. "How Vulnerable is the Turkish Stock Market to the Credit Default Swap? Evidence from the Markov Switching GARCH Model," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 513-531, June.
    9. Foglia, Matteo & Di Tommaso, Caterina & Wang, Gang-Jin & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2024. "Interconnectedness between stock and credit markets: The role of European G-SIBs in a multilayer perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swap; iTraxx index; Volatility spillover; Multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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