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Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Altin Tanku

Abstract

Establishing cointegration and long-run convergence between the official and the black market exchange rates is a way of testing foreign exchange market efficiency. Earlier research employed the Engle-Granger or Johansen method to test for cointegration between the two rates. Since either method requires each rate to be non-stationary, exchange rates that did not possess this property had to be excluded from analysis. However, with the introduction of the bounds testing approach to cointegration, no exchange rate needs to be excluded since this relatively new technique does not require pre-unit root testing. This paper employs monthly data from 27 developing countries and the bounds testing approach to cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001) to show that in 22 out of 27 countries, not only are the two rates cointegrated but in all countries the black market exchange rate causes the official rate to adjust and converge toward the black market rate in the long run. Copyright Academy of Economics and Finance 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Altin Tanku, 2006. "Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:30:y:2006:i:1:p:57-69
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02834275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Long-run nature of the relationship between the black market and the official exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 319-327, September.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S‐curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, May.
    3. Baghestani, Hamid & Noer, John, 1993. "Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 709-721.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Payesteh, Sayeed, 1993. "Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 661-677.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 32-38, March.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2000. "Black Market Rates and Official Rates in Armenia: Evidence from Causality Tests in Alternative Regimes," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 335-344, Summer.
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