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Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India

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  • Baghestani, Hamid
  • Noer, John

Abstract

The examination of stochastic properties of the black market and official exchange rates in India reveals that the series are cointegrated and, therefore, possess a longrun equilibrium relation. The black rate is found to be more sensitive to shocks, and at the same time, adjusts more quickly to departures from the long-run equilibrium relation. This is expected, since the policy-determined official rate was set by what seems to be a sluggish and/or arbitrary mechanism, and that the black had to largely respond and adjust to the exogenous shocks in order to maintain the long-run equilibrium relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Baghestani, Hamid & Noer, John, 1993. "Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 709-721.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:15:y:1993:i:4:p:709-721
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    Cited by:

    1. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    2. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
    3. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2001. "Black and official exchange rates in Greece: an analysis of their long-run dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 295-314, July.
    4. Ali Kutan, 1998. "Dynamics of parallel and official exchange rates: The experience of hungary," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65, March.
    5. Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". ""The Premium in Black Dollar Markets''," CARESS Working Papres 97-03, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    6. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2003. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity, and the official and parallel markets for foreign currency in Latin America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Altin Tanku, 2006. "Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    8. Shachmurove, Yochanan, 1999. "The Premium in Black Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Developing Economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-39, January.
    9. Sovannroeun Samreth, 2010. "A Note on Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Parallel and Official Exchange Rates: The Case of Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1044-1053.
    10. Dockery, E. & Taylor, K., 1997. "Some tests on the long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates: evidence for four East European countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 317-332, December.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Long-run nature of the relationship between the black market and the official exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 319-327, September.
    12. A. Arize & J. Malindretos, 1998. "The long-run and short-run effects of exchange-rate volatility on exports: The case of Australia and New Zealand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 43-56, June.
    13. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A fractional cointegration analysis of the long-run relationship between black and official foreign exchange rates: the case of the Brazilian cruzeiro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 853-861.
    14. Hamid Baghestani, 1997. "Purchasing power parity in the presence of foreign exchange black markets: the case of India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1147-1154.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
    16. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    17. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.

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