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Estimation of sales decrease caused by a disaster: Hokkaido blackout after earthquake in 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Jun’ichi Ozaki

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

  • Hideki Takayasu

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology
    Sony Computer Science Laboratories, Inc)

  • Misako Takayasu

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Abstract

We simulate the inter-firm trading network which consists of approximately 1 million nodes, and we estimate the firm sales in Japan. We apply the gravity interaction model to the real Japanese inter-firm trading network to calculate the money transport between firms. Sales of each firm are evaluated through the scaling relation between the money flow and the sales, and then the total sales are calculated as an economic indicator. This calculation method is applicable to other situations. As an example, we present an estimation of sales decrease caused by the blackout due to the Hokkaido earthquake in September 6, 2018. The total sales are calculated in both cases: before and just after the earthquake. The total loss of sales is estimated as 35 billion yen per day for direct decrease in the firm sales in Hokkaido, while as 90 billion yen per day for indirect decrease in the other areas. The indirect sales decrease is about 2.6 times as well as the direct sales decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun’ichi Ozaki & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2019. "Estimation of sales decrease caused by a disaster: Hokkaido blackout after earthquake in 2018," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-51, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:2:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-019-00032-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s42001-019-00032-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Watanabe, Hayafumi & Takayasu, Hideki & Takayasu, Misako, 2013. "Relations between allometric scalings and fluctuations in complex systems: The case of Japanese firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 741-756.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yujue Wang, 2022. "Short-term shock, long-lasting payment: Evidence from the Lushan Earthquake," Papers 2212.01553, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.

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