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A Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for Crimean–Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Incidents

Author

Listed:
  • Duchwan Ryu

    (Northern Illinois University)

  • Devrim Bilgili

    (University of North Florida)

  • Önder Ergönül

    (Koç University)

  • Faming Liang

    (University of Florida)

  • Nader Ebrahimi

    (Northern Illinois University)

Abstract

Global spread of the Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a fatal viral infection disease found in parts of Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Middle East, with a fatality rate of up to 30%. A timely prediction of the prevalence of CCHF incidents is highly desirable, while CCHF incidents often exhibit nonlinearity in both temporal and spatial features. However, the modeling of discrete incidents is not trivial. Moreover, the CCHF incidents are monthly observed in a long period and take a nonlinear pattern over a region at each time point. Hence, the estimation and the data assimilation for incidents require extensive computations. In this paper, using the data augmentation with latent variables, we propose to utilize a dynamically weighted particle filter to take advantage of its population controlling feature in data assimilation. We apply our approach in an analysis of monthly CCHF incidents data collected in Turkey between 2004 and 2012. The results indicate that CCHF incidents are higher at Northern Central Turkey during summer and that some beforehand interventions to stop the propagation are recommendable. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Suggested Citation

  • Duchwan Ryu & Devrim Bilgili & Önder Ergönül & Faming Liang & Nader Ebrahimi, 2018. "A Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for Crimean–Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Incidents," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(1), pages 153-170, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:23:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s13253-017-0310-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s13253-017-0310-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liang F., 2002. "Dynamically Weighted Importance Sampling in Monte Carlo Computation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 807-821, September.
    2. Sadanori Konishi, 2004. "Bayesian information criteria and smoothing parameter selection in radial basis function networks," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(1), pages 27-43, March.
    3. Bochao Jia & Suwa Xu & Guanghua Xiao & Vishal Lamba & Faming Liang, 2017. "Learning gene regulatory networks from next generation sequencing data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1221-1230, December.
    4. Holmes C.C. & Mallick B.K., 2003. "Generalized Nonlinear Modeling With Multivariate Free-Knot Regression Splines," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 352-368, January.
    5. Duchwan Ryu & Faming Liang & Bani K. Mallick, 2013. "Sea Surface Temperature Modeling using Radial Basis Function Networks With a Dynamically Weighted Particle Filter," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 111-123, March.
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