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COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth

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  • Michael König

    (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)

  • Adalbert Winkler

    (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis. This article analyses the impact of mandatory social distancing imposed by lockdown policies and voluntary social distancing triggered by COVID-19 fatality rates on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2020 for a sample of 42 countries. OLS and IV results indicate an important role for the fatality rate, while panel regressions show that lockdown stringency is the more important driver of growth. When including lagged variables, more restrictive measures lead to lower GDP growth in the same quarter but are associated with a positive, catching-up effect in the following quarter.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(1), pages 32-39, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:intere:v:56:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10272-021-0948-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10272-021-0948-y
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    1. Michał Bilczak, 2021. "Crisis diagnosis in cross-border region: lessons from the pandemic," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(2), pages 223-237, December.
    2. Stephen Duckett, 2022. "Public Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: The Role of the Morrison Government," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-32, August.
    3. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2021. "Die Rezession 2020: Österreich im Ländervergleich," WIFO Research Briefs 4, WIFO.
    4. Stephen Davies, 2021. "COVID‐19 and complexity: Hayekian economics and the world after the pandemic," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 198-210, June.
    5. Jurgita Markevičiūtė & Jolita Bernatavičienė & Rūta Levulienė & Viktor Medvedev & Povilas Treigys & Julius Venskus, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19-Related Lockdown Measures on Economic and Social Outcomes in Lithuania," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Georgeta Soava & Anca Mehedintu & Mihaela Sterpu & Eugenia Grecu, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-25, April.
    7. Ardian Harri & Drini Imami & Edvin Zhllima, 2022. "The Effect Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Consumer Savings And Retail Sales: Evidence From A Postcommunist Transition Economy," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(233), pages 39-60, April – J.
    8. Helder Marcos Freitas Pereira & Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes, 2022. "Government Support and Institutions’ Intermediation throughout Companies’ Adaptation to the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Qingwen Li & Guangxi Yan & Chengming Yu, 2022. "A Novel Multi-Factor Three-Step Feature Selection and Deep Learning Framework for Regional GDP Prediction: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, April.
    10. Omrane Guedhami & April Knill & William Megginson & Lemma W. Senbet, 2023. "Economic impact of COVID-19 across national boundaries: The role of government responses," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(7), pages 1278-1297, September.
    11. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Piotr Korneta & Katarzyna Rostek, 2021. "The Impact of the SARS-CoV-19 Pandemic on the Global Gross Domestic Product," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-12, May.
    13. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "Makroökonomische Effekte der Kontaktbeschränkung in der Pandemie," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(3), pages 232-234, March.
    14. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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