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Business sentiments during India’s national lockdown: Lessons for second and potential third wave

Author

Listed:
  • Bornali Bhandari

    (NCAER)

  • Samarth Gupta

    (Ahmedabad University)

  • Ajaya K. Sahu

    (NCAER)

  • K. S. Urs

    (NCAER)

Abstract

The implementation of the COVID-19 national lockdown announced suddenly in March 2020 in India provided a unique opportunity to capture real-time changes in business sentiments during episodes of unexpected and sudden disruptions. Using a logit-probability model to analyse data of this natural experiment showed that firms’ 6-months ahead sentiments for its financial condition worsened drastically during lockdown compared to firms surveyed immediately prior to the announcement. Further, smaller firms showed a relatively higher impact. We also find that firms perceive this as a relatively higher demand shock in terms of falling domestic sales post-lockdown whereas supply shocks are perceived to be on the downside. Lastly the mitigation strategy of firms involved reducing employment for unskilled workers and wages for skilled workers. This unique study gives insights not only about firms and their strategies but regarding appropriate policy choices during lockdown. The lessons are applicable for governments which imposed local lockdowns during the second wave and potential disruption for the expected third wave.

Suggested Citation

  • Bornali Bhandari & Samarth Gupta & Ajaya K. Sahu & K. S. Urs, 2021. "Business sentiments during India’s national lockdown: Lessons for second and potential third wave," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 335-350, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inecre:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41775-021-00121-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s41775-021-00121-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2004. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(4), pages 137-174, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathur, Aakriti & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Pratap, Bhanu, 2024. "Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns: The role of pandemic-driven uncertainty," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta & Bhanu Pratap, 2022. "Saved by the bell? Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns and central bank interventions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business sentiments; Expectations; COVID-19; Lockdown; Sales; Employment; Wages; Meta-data; MSMEs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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