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Success, Survival and Probabilistic Voting: The Case of a ruling Party

Author

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  • Artyom Jelnov

    (Ariel University)

  • Pavel Jelnov

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

Abstract

In this article, we empirically study the survival of the ruling party in parliamentary democracies using a hazard rate model. We define survival of a crisis as being on the winning side in a critical vote in the parliament. We develop a general probabilistic model of political crises and test it empirically. We find that during crises, parties in the parliament are likely to vote independently of each other. Thus, we receive as an empirical result what the voting power literature widely assumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Artyom Jelnov & Pavel Jelnov, 2019. "Success, Survival and Probabilistic Voting: The Case of a ruling Party," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 209-226, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:homoec:v:36:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s41412-019-00091-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s41412-019-00091-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coalitions; Cabinet duration; Shapley–Shubik index; Rae index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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