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Bubbles in discrete-time models

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Herdegen

    (University of Warwick)

  • Dörte Kreher

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

We introduce a new definition of bubbles in discrete-time models based on the discounted stock price losing mass under an equivalent martingale measure at some finite drawdown. We provide equivalent probabilistic characterisations of this definition and give examples of discrete-time martingales that are bubbles and others that are not. In the Markovian case, we provide sufficient analytic conditions for the presence of bubbles. We also show that the existence of bubbles is directly linked to the existence of a non-trivial solution to a linear Volterra integral equation of the second kind involving the Markov kernel. Finally, we show that our definition of bubbles in discrete time is consistent with the strict local martingale definition of bubbles in continuous time in the sense that a properly discretised strict local martingale in continuous time is a bubble in discrete time.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Herdegen & Dörte Kreher, 2022. "Bubbles in discrete-time models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 899-925, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:26:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-022-00487-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-022-00487-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pal, Soumik & Protter, Philip, 2010. "Analysis of continuous strict local martingales via h-transforms," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(8), pages 1424-1443, August.
    2. Kardaras, Constantinos & Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "Strict local martingales and bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64967, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Erhan Bayraktar & Constantinos Kardaras & Hao Xing, 2012. "Strict local martingale deflators and valuing American call-type options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 275-291, April.
    4. Martin Herdegen & Martin Schweizer, 2016. "Strong Bubbles And Strict Local Martingales," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-44, June.
    5. Francesca Biagini & Hans Föllmer & Sorin Nedelcu, 2014. "Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-326, April.
    6. Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
    7. Soumik Pal & Philip Protter, 2007. "Analysis of continuous strict local martingales via h-transforms," Papers 0711.1136, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    8. Loewenstein, Mark & Willard, Gregory A., 2000. "Rational Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Bubbles in Continuous Trading Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 17-58, March.
    9. Hardy Hulley & Johannes Ruf, 2019. "Weak Tail Conditions for Local Martingales," Published Paper Series 2019-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Strict local martingale; Markov martingale; Volterra integral equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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