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Detecting money market bubbles

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  • Baldeaux, Jan
  • Ignatieva, Katja
  • Platen, Eckhard

Abstract

The existence of a self-financing trading strategy that replicates the money market account at a fixed future date at a lower cost than the current value of this account constitutes a money market bubble (MMB). Understanding whether a market exhibits an MMB is crucial, in particular, for derivative pricing. An MMB precludes the existence of a risk-neutral probability measure. The benchmark approach allows to study MMBs and is formulated under the real world probability measure. It does not require the existence of a risk neutral probability measure. Using a range of well-known stochastic volatility models, we study the existence of an MMB in the US economy, and find that the US market exhibits an MMB for all models considered that allow it. This suggests that for derivative pricing and hedging care should be taken when making assumptions pertaining to the existence of a risk-neutral probability measure. Less expensive portfolios are likely to exist for a wide range of long-term derivatives, as typical for pensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldeaux, Jan & Ignatieva, Katja & Platen, Eckhard, 2018. "Detecting money market bubbles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 369-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:369-379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.10.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    2. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2019. "Is Bitcoin a bubble?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 222-232.
    3. Pedro L. P. Chaim & Márcio P. Laurini, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Expectation Errors and Filtration Enlargements," Stats, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Less-Expensive Valuation of Long Term Annuities Linked to Mortality, Cash and Equity," Papers 1711.02808, arXiv.org.
    5. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2019. "Dynamics of a Well-Diversified Equity Index," Research Paper Series 398, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Márcio P. Laurini & Pedro Chaim, 2021. "Brazilian stock market bubble in the 2010s," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money market bubbles; Strict local martingales; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Stochastic volatility models; Benchmark approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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