IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting Money Market Bubbles

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Using a range of stochastic volatility models well-known in the finance literature, we study the existence of money market bubbles in the US economy. Money market bubbles preclude the existence of a risk-neutral pricing measure. Understanding whether markets exhibit money market bubbles is crucial from the point of view of derivative pricing since their existence implies the existence of a self-financing trading strategy that replicates the savings account’s value at a fixed future date at a cheaper cost than the current value of the savings account. The benchmark approach is formulated under the real world probability measure and does not require the existence of a risk neutral probability measure. It hence emerges as the appropriate framework to study the potential existence of money market bubbles. Testing the existence of money market bubbles in the US economy we find that for all models the US market exhibits a money market bubble. This conclusion suggests that for derivative pricing and hedging care should be taken when making assumptions pertaining to the existence of a risk-neutral probability measure. Less expensive hedge portfolios may exist for a wide range of derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Baldeaux & Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2016. "Detecting Money Market Bubbles," Research Paper Series 378, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/QFR-rp378.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
    2. Damir Filipović & Eckhard Platen, 2009. "Consistent Market Extensions Under The Benchmark Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 41-52, January.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
    4. Baldeaux Jan & Ignatieva Katja & Platen Eckhard, 2014. "A tractable model for indices approximating the growth optimal portfolio," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    6. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
    7. Kevin X.D. Huang & Jan Werner, 2000. "Asset price bubbles in Arrow-Debreu and sequential equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(2), pages 253-278.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    9. Hardy Hulley, 2010. "The Economic Plausibility of Strict Local Martingales in Financial Modelling," Research Paper Series 279, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    11. Steven L. Heston & Mark Loewenstein & Gregory A. Willard, 2007. "Options and Bubbles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 359-390.
    12. Roger Lord & Remmert Koekkoek & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "A comparison of biased simulation schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194.
    13. Gilles, Christian & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1992. "Bubbles and Charges," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 323-339, May.
    14. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Karim Mimouni, 2010. "Volatility Dynamics for the S&P500: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3141-3189, August.
    15. Eckhard Platen, 1999. "A short term interest rate model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-225.
    16. Jun Liu, 2004. "Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 611-641.
    17. Baldeaux, Jan & Grasselli, Martino & Platen, Eckhard, 2015. "Pricing currency derivatives under the benchmark approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 34-48.
    18. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    19. Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
    20. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
    21. Gabriel G. Drimus, 2012. "Options on realized variance by transform methods: a non-affine stochastic volatility model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1679-1694, November.
    22. Leif Andersen & Vladimir Piterbarg, 2007. "Moment explosions in stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 29-50, January.
    23. Hugonnier, Julien, 2012. "Rational asset pricing bubbles and portfolio constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(6), pages 2260-2302.
    24. Ioannis Karatzas & Constantinos Kardaras, 2007. "The numéraire portfolio in semimartingale financial models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 447-493, October.
    25. Berg, Andreas & Meyer, Renate & Yu, Jun, 2004. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-120, January.
    26. Loewenstein, Mark & Willard, Gregory A., 2000. "Rational Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Bubbles in Continuous Trading Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 17-58, March.
    27. José da Fonseca & Martino Grasselli, 2011. "Riding on the smiles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 1609-1632.
    28. Aleksandar Mijatovic & Mikhail Urusov, 2009. "On the Martingale Property of Certain Local Martingales," Papers 0905.3701, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
    29. Jones, Christopher S., 2003. "The dynamics of stochastic volatility: evidence from underlying and options markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 181-224.
    30. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    31. Mark Loewenstein & Gregory A. Willard, 2006. "The Limits of Investor Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 231-258, February.
    32. Alan L. Lewis, 2000. "Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility," Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility, Finance Press, number ovsv, December.
    33. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    34. repec:cdl:ucsbec:280 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    36. Hardy Hulley & Johannes Ruf, 2019. "Weak Tail Conditions for Local Martingales," Published Paper Series 2019-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    37. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Gao, Bin, 1999. "A Parametric Nonlinear Model of Term Structure Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 721-762.
    38. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    2. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2019. "Is Bitcoin a bubble?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 222-232.
    3. Pedro L. P. Chaim & Márcio P. Laurini, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Expectation Errors and Filtration Enlargements," Stats, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Less-Expensive Valuation of Long Term Annuities Linked to Mortality, Cash and Equity," Papers 1711.02808, arXiv.org.
    5. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2019. "Dynamics of a Well-Diversified Equity Index," Research Paper Series 398, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Márcio P. Laurini & Pedro Chaim, 2021. "Brazilian stock market bubble in the 2010s," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaeck, Andreas & Rodrigues, Paulo & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Equity index variance: Evidence from flexible parametric jump–diffusion models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 85-103.
    2. Kaeck, Andreas & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Volatility dynamics for the S&P 500: Further evidence from non-affine, multi-factor jump diffusions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3110-3121.
    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Charles Cao & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2021. "Assessing models of individual equity option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Carol Alexander & Andreas Kaeck, 2012. "Does model fit matter for hedging? Evidence from FTSE 100 options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 609-638, July.
    5. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 19, July-Dece.
    6. Pollastri, Alessandro & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian & Seeger, Norman J., 2023. "A jumping index of jumping stocks? An MCMC analysis of continuous-time models for individual stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 322-341.
    7. Du Du & Dan Luo, 2019. "The Pricing of Jump Propagation: Evidence from Spot and Options Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2360-2387, May.
    8. Baldeaux, Jan & Grasselli, Martino & Platen, Eckhard, 2015. "Pricing currency derivatives under the benchmark approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 34-48.
    9. Pacati, Claudio & Pompa, Gabriele & Renò, Roberto, 2018. "Smiling twice: The Heston++ model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 185-206.
    10. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2009, January-A.
    11. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fearnley, Marcus & Fisher, Adlai J. & Leippold, Markus, 2015. "What is beneath the surface? Option pricing with multifrequency latent states," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 498-511.
    12. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Li, Chenxu & Li, Chen Xu, 2021. "Closed-form implied volatility surfaces for stochastic volatility models with jumps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 364-392.
    13. Li, Gang & Zhang, Chu, 2013. "Diagnosing affine models of options pricing: Evidence from VIX," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 199-219.
    14. Bardgett, Chris & Gourier, Elise & Leippold, Markus, 2019. "Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 593-618.
    15. Ilze Kalnina & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Leverage Effect: A Trade-Off Between Robustness and Efficiency," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 384-396, January.
    16. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    17. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    18. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    19. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    20. Kaeck, Andreas, 2013. "Asymmetry in the jump-size distribution of the S&P 500: Evidence from equity and option markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1872-1888.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money market bubbles; strict local martingales; Markov chain Monte Carlo; stochastic volatility models; benchmark approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.