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Has COVID-19 changed the stock return-oil price predictability pattern?

Author

Listed:
  • Fan Zhang

    (Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics)

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

    (Monash University)

  • Neluka Devpura

    (University of Sri Jayewardenepura)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine if COVID-19 has impacted the relationship between oil prices and stock returns predictions using daily Japanese stock market data from 01/04/2020 to 03/17/2021. We make a novel contribution to the literature by testing whether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed this predictability relationship. Employing an empirical model that controls for seasonal effects, return-related control variables, heteroskedasticity, persistency, and endogeneity, we demonstrate that the influence of oil prices on stock returns declined by around 89.5% due to COVID-19. This implies that when COVID-19 reduced economic activity and destabilized financial markets, the influence of oil prices on stock returns declined. This finding could have implications for trading strategies that rely on oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhang & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Neluka Devpura, 2021. "Has COVID-19 changed the stock return-oil price predictability pattern?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00277-7
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-021-00277-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    2. Xi, Yue & Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Oil and renewable energy stock markets: Unique role of extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Zhang, Yanyan & chang, Hsuling & Saliba, Chafic & Hasnaoui, Amir, 2022. "Metallic natural resources commodity prices volatility in the pandemic: Evidence for silver, platinum, and palladium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Boateng, Ebenezer & Adam, Anokye M. & Junior, Peterson Owusu, 2021. "Modelling the heterogeneous relationship between the crude oil implied volatility index and African stocks in the coronavirus pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Sun, Yiguo & Li, Delong & Suo, Chenyi & Wang, Yu, 2023. "A threshold effect of COVID-19 risk on oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Mariana Hatmanu & Cristina Cautisanu, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market: Evidence from Romania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Behera, Chinmaya & Rath, Badri Narayan & Mishra, Pramod Kumar, 2024. "The impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on stock returns during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Qiuyun Wang & Lu Liu, 2022. "Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Sanusi Yakubu Muhammad & Isah Auwal & Bello Abdulmajeed Kumo & Yusuf Fadimah, 2023. "Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Based on Non-Linear Ardl Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 573-591, November.
    11. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Xiaoxiao & Dong, Rebecca Kechen & Pu, Ruihui & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from COVID-19 for the US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Ouyang, Zi-sheng & Liu, Meng-tian & Huang, Su-su & Yao, Ting, 2022. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for the systemic risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Zhuoqi Teng & Renhong Wu & Yugang He & Anibal Coronel, 2023. "Swings in Crude Oil Valuations: Analyzing Their Bearing on China’s Stock Market Returns amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Upheaval," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2023, pages 1-10, June.
    14. Chang, Chiu-Lan, 2024. "Extreme events, economic uncertainty and speculation on occurrences of price bubbles in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Olaniran, Abeeb & Lasisi, Lukman, 2023. "Climate risk and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Oil prices; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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