IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/beexfi/v30y2021ics221463502100037x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do opinion polls on government preference influence stock returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Narayan, Seema

Abstract

We investigate the role of opinion polls on intention to vote in influencing Australian stock returns. We unravel robust evidence suggesting that stock returns react more to a preference to vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) than the Liberal-National Party (LNP). A one standard deviation increase in preference for ALP increases excess returns by 28.08% of its sample mean while the corresponding effect of LNP preference is only 15.48%. Economically, therefore, the effect of ALP preferences on excess returns is almost twice that of LNP. Results are robust to different portfolio formation, measures of returns, and controls for returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "Do opinion polls on government preference influence stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:30:y:2021:i:c:s221463502100037x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221463502100037X
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100493?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    2. Borisova, Ginka & Brown, James R., 2013. "R&D sensitivity to asset sale proceeds: New evidence on financing constraints and intangible investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 159-173.
    3. Knight*, Brian, 2007. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 389-409, February.
    4. Kenta Funaoka & Yusaku Nishimura, 2020. "Private Information, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing: Which Institutional Investors Are Better Informed?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1722-1736, July.
    5. Jay Choi & Marcel Thum, 2009. "The economics of politically-connected firms," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(5), pages 605-620, October.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    7. Xin Gu & Shan Ying & Weiqiang Zhang & Yewei Tao, 2020. "How Do Firms Respond to COVID-19? First Evidence from Suzhou, China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2181-2197, August.
    8. Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
    9. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    10. José Manuel Campa, 1994. "Multinational Investment under Uncertainty in the Chemical Processing Industries," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 25(3), pages 557-578, September.
    11. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
    12. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    13. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. John Morgan & Phillip C. Stocken, 2008. "Information Aggregation in Polls," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 864-896, June.
    18. Gemmill, Gordon, 1992. "Political risk and market efficiency: Tests based in British stock and options markets in the 1987 election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 211-231, February.
    19. Kiryoung Lee & Minki Kim, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 915-933, March.
    20. Afees A. Salisu & Lateef O. Akanni, 2020. "Constructing a Global Fear Index for the COVID-19 Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2310-2331, August.
    21. Debelle, Guy, 2020. "The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy actions and balance sheet," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 285-295.
    22. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    23. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2020. "The Disease Outbreak Channel of Exchange Rate Return Predictability: Evidence from COVID-19," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2277-2297, August.
    24. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    25. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    26. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    27. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    28. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    29. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
    30. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    31. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    32. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    33. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    34. Omair Haroon & Syed Aun R. Rizvi, 2020. "Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquidity – An Inquiry into Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2151-2161, August.
    35. Platikanova, Petya, 2017. "Investor-legislators: Tax holiday for politically connected firms," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 380-398.
    36. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    37. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    38. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2013. "Politically Connected Boards of Directors and The Allocation of Procurement Contracts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1617-1648.
    39. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    40. Conghui Chen & Lanlan Liu & Ningru Zhao, 2020. "Fear Sentiment, Uncertainty, and Bitcoin Price Dynamics: The Case of COVID-19," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2298-2309, August.
    41. Bin Gao & Chunpeng Yang, 2018. "Investor Trading Behavior and Sentiment in Futures Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 707-720, February.
    42. Lang, Mark H. & Shackelford, Douglas A., 2000. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: evidence from stock price reactions to the 1997 rate reduction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 69-85, April.
    43. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
    44. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    45. Doowon Ryu & Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2020. "Investor Sentiment, Market Competition, and Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(8), pages 1804-1816, June.
    46. Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 541-560, September.
    47. Susan Sunila Sharma & Yezhou Sha, 2020. "Part A: Special Section on COVID-19 Research," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3551-3553, December.
    48. Sihai Li & Huiying Wu & Xianzhong Song, 2017. "Principal–Principal Conflicts and Corporate Philanthropy: Evidence from Chinese Private Firms," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 605-620, March.
    49. Boubakri, Narjess & Guedhami, Omrane & Mishra, Dev & Saffar, Walid, 2012. "Political connections and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 541-559.
    50. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    51. Jayachandran, Seema, 2006. "The Jeffords Effect," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 397-425, October.
    52. Jason Zhe Ma & Kung-Cheng Ho & Lu Yang & Chien-Chi Chu, 2018. "Market Sentiment and Investor Overreaction: Evidence from New York Listed Asian Country Exchange Traded Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 2455-2471, September.
    53. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    54. Infante, L. & Piazza, M., 2014. "Political connections and preferential lending at local level: Some evidence from the Italian credit market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 246-262.
    55. MARA FACCIO & RONALD W. MASULIS & JOHN J. McCONNELL, 2006. "Political Connections and Corporate Bailouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2597-2635, December.
    56. Zhifang He & Fangzhao Zhou & Xiaohua Xia & Fenghua Wen & Yiyuan Huang, 2019. "Interaction between Oil Price and Investor Sentiment: Nonlinear Causality, Time- Varying Influence, and Asymmetric Effect," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2756-2773, September.
    57. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    58. Joakim Westerlund & Hande Karabiyik & Paresh Narayan, 2017. "Testing for Predictability in panels with General Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 554-574, April.
    59. Yugang Yin & Rongfu Tian, 2017. "Investor Sentiment, Financial Report Quality and Stock Price Crash Risk: Role of Short-Sales Constraints," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 493-510, March.
    60. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Qasim Raza Syed, 2021. "Investor Sentiment and Volatility Prediction of Currencies and Commodities During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-6.
    61. Tisdell, Clement A., 2020. "Economic, social and political issues raised by the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 17-28.
    62. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Kumar, P. C. & Riddick, Leigh A., 1998. "The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 293-320, March.
    63. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    2. Sui, Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Analyzing causality between epidemics and oil prices: Role of the stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 148-158.
    3. Alnahedh, Saad & Alhashel, Bader, 2024. "Firm executive political leanings, Washington, and stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 476-491.
    4. Sy, Oumar & Zaman, Ashraf Al, 2020. "Is the presidential premium spurious?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-104.
    5. Alejandro Bernales & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "Effects of Information Overload on Financial Markets: How Much Is Too Much?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1372, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/65rged1j6o9gl9jvp8a09o3eue is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Tran, Vuong Thao & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2021. "State-level politics: Do they influence corporate investment decisions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Chen, Yin-E & Li, Chunyan & Chang, Chun-Ping & Zheng, Mingbo, 2021. "Identifying the influence of natural disasters on technological innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-36.
    11. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Financial news and CDS spreads," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    13. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    14. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    15. Cohen, Lauren & Diether, Karl & Malloy, Christopher, 2013. "Legislating stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 574-595.
    16. Michael Cooper & Huseyin Gulen, 2006. "Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1263-1292, May.
    17. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    18. Helmut Herwartz & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    19. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2019. "Can stale oil price news predict stock returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 430-444.
    21. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 285-307, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:30:y:2021:i:c:s221463502100037x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-behavioral-and-experimental-finance .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.