IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v26y2010i2d10.1007_s10680-009-9179-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert L. Clark

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Naohiro Ogawa

    (Nihon University Population Research Institute)

  • Makoto Kondo

    (Kobe Gakuin University)

  • Rikiya Matsukura

    (Nihon University Population Research Institute)

Abstract

Demographic trends in Japan are producing a declining population that is rapidly growing older. With a total fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman, the population has already begun to decline. This article examines the impact of these demographic trends on the level of employment and economic growth that Japan is projected to experience over the next 20 years. We explore the effect of changes in labor market policies on age-specific employment rates and assess whether innovative policies can moderate the decline in employment. Public policies encouraging increased employment of women and persons aged 60 and older could partially offset the anticipated decline in employment. The importance of the Japanese experience for European policy makers is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Makoto Kondo & Rikiya Matsukura, 2010. "Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 207-227, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:26:y:2010:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-009-9179-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-009-9179-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-009-9179-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-009-9179-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kazuyuki Motohashi, 2003. "Economic Growth of Japan and the United States in the Information Age," Discussion papers 03015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Rikiya Matsukura & Naohiro Ogawa & Robert Clark, 2007. "Analysis of Employment Patterns and the Changing Demographic Structure of Japan," Japanese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 82-153.
    4. Robert Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2007. "Population Aging, Changing Retirement Policies and Lifetime Earnings Profiles in Japan," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Masaya Sakuragawa & Tatsuji Makino, 2007. "Labor Force Ageing and Economic Growth in Japan," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Hiromi Kato (ed.), Ageing and the Labor Market in Japan, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Ryoko Morozumi, 2004. "Economic growth under the demographic transition: a theory and some international evidence," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608.
    8. Masanori Hashimoto, 1990. "The Japanese Labor Market in a Comparative Perspective with the United States," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number jlm.
    9. Ogawa, Naohiro & Ermisch, John F, 1996. "Family Structure, Home Time Demands, and the Employment Patterns of Japanese Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 677-702, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mingke Xie & Zhangxian Feng & Chenggu Li, 2022. "How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2010. "Economic consequences of low fertility in Europe," FZID Discussion Papers 11-2010, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    3. Sadam Hussain & Muhammad Shahid Akram & Abdul Ghaffar & Yasmeen Qamar & Waqar Ahmad, 2019. "Impact of Foreign Investment, Labor Force and Interest Rate on Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan (Under CPEC Project Contribution Countries)," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 369-377, December.
    4. David E. Bloom & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Introduction to Special Issue of the European Journal of Population: ‘Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’ [Introduction au numéro spécial de la Revue Européenne de Démographie: ‹ Cons," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 127-139, May.
    5. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis & Nicholas Tsounis, 2023. "Declining population and GDP growth," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Robert Clark & Melinda Morrill, 2013. "Increasing Work Life: The Role Of The Employer," Discussion Papers 13-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Sanae Tashiro & Chu-Ping Lo, 2020. "When Social Norms Influence the Employment of Women: The Case of Japan," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 460-482, June.
    8. Rob Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2013. "Low fertility, human capital, and economic growth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(32), pages 865-884.
    9. Robert Clark & Rikiya Matsukura & Naohiro Ogawa, 2014. "Retirement Transitions In Japan," Discussion Papers 14-013, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Jasmina Barakovic Husic & Francisco José Melero & Sabina Barakovic & Petre Lameski & Eftim Zdravevski & Petra Maresova & Ondrej Krejcar & Ivan Chorbev & Nuno M. Garcia & Vladimir Trajkovik, 2020. "Aging at Work: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Directions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason & Amonthep Chawla & Rikiya Matsukura, 2010. "Japan's Unprecedented Aging and Changing Intergenerational Transfers," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 131-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. JORGENSON Dale W. & MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2004. "Potential Growth Of The Japanese And U.S. Economies In The Information Age," ESRI Discussion paper series 088, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Naohiro Ogawa & Sang-Hyop Lee & Rikiya Matsukura & An-Chi Tung & Mun Sim Lai, 2012. "Population aging, economic growth, and intergenerational transfers in Japan: how dire are the prospects?," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 8, pages 231-276, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Matsukura, Rikiya & Shimizutani, Satoshi & Mitsuyama, Nahoko & Lee, Sang-Hyop & Ogawa, Naohiro, 2018. "Untapped work capacity among old persons and their potential contributions to the “silver dividend” in Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 236-249.
    6. Kyoji Fukao & Tomohiko Inui & Hiroki Kawai & Tsutomu Miyagawa, 2004. "Sectoral Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan, 1970-98: An Empirical Analysis Based on the JIP Database," NBER Chapters, in: Growth and Productivity in East Asia, pages 177-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hiroshi Ono & Marcus Rebick, 2003. "Constraints on the Level and Efficient Use of Labor," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 225-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lee, Sang-Hyop & Ogawa, Naohiro & Matsukura, Rikiya, 2016. "Japan’s pension reform, labor market responses, and savings," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 67-75.
    9. Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2012. "Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15088.
    10. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Robert F. Owen, 2008. "Human Capital and Economic Growth: Dynamic Implications of Insider-outsider Problem for Macroeconomics," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 4(1), pages 133-158, December.
    11. Shuzo Ueda & Kazuo Ogawa, 2012. "On the cost-reducing effects of embodied technical progress: a panel study of the steel industry in Japan," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 141-153, April.
    12. Miyagawa, Tsutomu & Ito, Yukiko & Harada, Nobuyuki, 2004. "The IT revolution and productivity growth in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 362-389, September.
    13. repec:esj:esridp:88 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(2), pages 1-25, September.
    15. Kawai, Eizo, 2001. "Re-examination of wage, employment, and hours adjustments: what is crucial for differences in the adjustments?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 483-497, December.
    16. Morita, Hiroshi, 2014. "External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-74.
    17. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    18. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    19. Pelin Akyol & Zeynep Yılmaz, 2024. "Effects of Grandmothers' Proximity on Mothers' Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1122-1162, October.
    20. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    21. Julia, Knolle, 2014. "An Empirical Comparison of Interest and Growth Rates," MPRA Paper 59520, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:26:y:2010:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-009-9179-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.