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Modelling Regional Immigration: Using Stocks to Predict Flows

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Listed:
  • Nicole Van der Gaag

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI))

  • Leo Van Wissen

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI))

Abstract

This paper explores thefeasibility of improving regional internationalmigration assumptions by analysing therelationship between international migrationflows and foreign population structures.Regional projection models are discussed andempirically tested using data for Sweden. Theresults show that regional assumptions oninternational migration of foreigners could beimproved by using the spatial distribution ofstocks of foreigners as predictor.Improvements, however, are only minor and donot seem to compensate for the loss insimplicity of the models. This is especiallytrue at the aggregate level of immigrantgroups. Only for relatively new immigrantgroups, improvements are substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Van der Gaag & Leo Van Wissen, 2002. "Modelling Regional Immigration: Using Stocks to Predict Flows," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 387-409, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:18:y:2002:i:4:d:10.1023_a:1021113025801
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1021113025801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edmonston, Barry & Passel, Jeffrey S., 1992. "Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 459-476, November.
    2. Nicole Van Der Gaag & Leo Van Wissen, 2001. "Determinants of the subnational distribution of immigration," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 92(1), pages 27-41, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sona Schovankova, 2013. "Determinants of the Spatial Distribution of Foreign Empolyees on Different Skilled Positions: The Case of the Czech Republic," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 2, pages 115-139, June.
    2. Christos Bagavos & Cleon Tsimbos & Georgia Verropoulou, 2008. "Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 245-263, September.
    3. Josef Novotny & Jiri Hasman, 2015. "The Emergence of Regional Immigrant Concentrations in USA and Australia: A Spatial Relatedness Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.

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