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Fertility Behaviour under Income Uncertainty

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  • Priya Ranjan

    (University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

This paper develops a two-period stochastic model of fertility behaviour to provide a possible explanation for the recent sharp decline in birth rates in the former Soviet Republics and Eastern European countries. Due to the existence of irreversibilities associated with the childbearing decision and the option of postponing childbearing for a later time, it may be optimal for individuals to postpone childbearing during times of increased income uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Priya Ranjan, 1999. "Fertility Behaviour under Income Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 25-43, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:15:y:1999:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1006106527618
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1006106527618
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Besley, Timothy, 1995. "Savings, credit and insurance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 2123-2207, Elsevier.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, June.
    4. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2002. "Does Economic Uncertainty Have an Impact on Decisions to Bear Children? Evidence from Eastern Germany," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 491, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Wooden, Mark & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Mooi-Reci, Irma, 2021. "The Differential Impacts of Contingent Employment on Fertility: Evidence from Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 14850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Eleonora Mussino & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Livia Elisa Ortensi & Salvatore Strozza, 2023. "Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 233-260, March.
    5. Danilo Bolano & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Union formation under conditions of uncertainty: The objective and subjective sides of employment uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(5), pages 141-186.
    6. Dimiter Philipov & Zsolt Spéder & Francesco C. Billari, 2005. "Now or Later? Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria and Hungary and the Impact of Anomie and Social Capital," VID Working Papers 0507, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Claudio Costanzo, 2022. "Robots, Jobs, and Optimal Fertility Timing," Working Papers ECARES 2022-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Bhaumik, Sumon K. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2005. "Does Economic Uncertainty Affect the Decision to Bear Children? Evidence from East and West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1746, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Dong‐Hyeon Kim & Ting‐Cih Chen & Shu‐Chin Lin, 2023. "Fertility and banking development: New panel evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4220-4235, October.
    10. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
    11. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    12. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 473-520, April.
    13. Natalie Nitsche & D. Susie Lee, 2022. "Emotion and fertility in times of disaster: conceptualizing fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Laura Bernardi & Andreas Klärner & Holger Lippe, 2008. "Job Insecurity and the Timing of Parenthood: A Comparison between Eastern and Western Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 287-313, September.
    15. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2002. "Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 233-262, September.
    16. Dimiter Philipov, 2002. "Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Shao‐Hsun Keng, 2024. "The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 188-208, June.
    18. Nkechi S. Owoo & Monica P. Lambon-Quayefio, 2022. "Does Job Security Affect Fertility and Fertility Intentions in Ghana? Examining the Evidence," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 86-99, March.

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