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EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Fellmann
  • Myrna Leeuwen
  • Petra Salamon
  • Ali Koc
  • Gulden Boluk

Abstract

Turkey is officially recognized as a candidate country for EU membership and formal accession negotiations started in October 2005. Given the importance of Turkey’s agricultural sector, a Turkish accession to the EU could be expected to impact the agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. This paper provides an in-depth model-based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of a Turkish EU-membership for agricultural income and commodity markets, focusing in particular on the effects in Turkey. Results show that the main impacts on Turkish agriculture would be a reduction in subsidies, producer prices, and quantities produced. A decrease in agricultural income, especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco farmers), is also projected. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broilers and dairy milk would benefit from EU accession due to lower feed costs. Moreover, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. Copyright Eurasia Business and Economics Society 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koc & Gulden Boluk, 2012. "EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.14208/BF03353834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koç & Gülden Bölük & Andrzej Tabeau & Roberto Esposti & Andrea Bonfiglio & Antonello Lobianco & Kevin Hanrahan, 2011. "Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey and accession scenario," JRC Research Reports JRC60663, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Burrell, Alison M. & Kurzweil, Marianne, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Turkey," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48388, World Bank.
    3. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43539, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; EU Enlargement; Agricultural Markets; Q11; Q13; C45;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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