IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envsyd/v40y2020i2d10.1007_s10669-020-09772-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises

Author

Listed:
  • Mark C. Quigley

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Canterbury)

  • Januka Attanayake

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Andrew King

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

  • Fabian Prideaux

    (Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting (HBC))

Abstract

Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark C. Quigley & Januka Attanayake & Andrew King & Fabian Prideaux, 2020. "A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 199-215, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:40:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10669-020-09772-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Md. Chowdhury, 2000. "An Assessment of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh: The Experience of the 1998 Flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 22(2), pages 139-163, September.
    2. Andrew D. King & Andy J. Pitman & Benjamin J. Henley & Anna M. Ukkola & Josephine R. Brown, 2020. "The role of climate variability in Australian drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 177-179, March.
    3. Scott Sheridan & Adam Kalkstein, 2010. "Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 291-305, November.
    4. Ridenhour, B. & Kowalik, J.M. & Shay, D.K., 2014. "Unraveling R0: Considerations for public health applications," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 104(2), pages 32-41.
    5. Matthias M. Boer & Víctor Resco de Dios & Ross A. Bradstock, 2020. "Unprecedented burn area of Australian mega forest fires," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 171-172, March.
    6. Bostick, T.P. & Connelly, E.B. & Lambert, J.H. & Linkov, I., 2018. "Resilience science, policy and investment for civil infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rizwana Subhani & Shahab E. Saqib & Md. Anishur Rahman & Mokbul Morshed Ahmad & Siriporn Pradit, 2021. "Impact of Cyclone Yaas 2021 Aggravated by COVID-19 Pandemic in the Southwest Coastal Zone of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Muhammad Waqas & Xue Honggang & Naveed Ahmad & Zhang Yu, 2022. "Adoption of innovative strategies to mitigate supply chain disruption: COVID-19 pandemic," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 1115-1133, December.
    3. W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jantsje M. Mol & Peter J. Robinson & Juan Zhang & Jeffrey Czajkowski, 2022. "Individual hurricane evacuation intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights for risk communication and emergency management policies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 507-522, March.
    4. Benjamin D. Trump & Igor Linkov, 2020. "Risk and resilience in the time of the COVID-19 crisis," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 171-173, June.
    5. Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, 2023. "Exploring the links between flood events and the COVID-19 infection cases in Romania in the new multi-hazard-prone era," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1611-1631, June.
    6. Takako Izumi & Sangita Das & Miwa Abe & Rajib Shaw, 2022. "Managing Compound Hazards: Impact of COVID-19 and Cases of Adaptive Governance during the 2020 Kumamoto Flood in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Gerald Potutan & Masaru Arakida, 2021. "Evolving Disaster Response Practices during COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Sharov, Konstantin S., 2020. "Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuquan Qu & Diego G. Miralles & Sander Veraverbeke & Harry Vereecken & Carsten Montzka, 2023. "Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Md. Chowdhury, 2003. "The Impact of `Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project' (GDFPP) on Local Living Environment – The Attitude of the Floodplain Residents," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(3), pages 309-324, July.
    3. Alisson Lopes Rodrigues & Lineu Neiva Rodrigues & Guilherme Fernandes Marques & Pedro Manuel Villa, 2023. "Simulation Model to Assess the Water Dynamics in Small Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2019-2038, March.
    4. Maureen S. Golan & Laura H. Jernegan & Igor Linkov, 2020. "Trends and applications of resilience analytics in supply chain modeling: systematic literature review in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 222-243, June.
    5. Animesh Gain & Vahid Mojtahed & Claudio Biscaro & Stefano Balbi & Carlo Giupponi, 2015. "An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1499-1530, December.
    6. Monzur A. Imteaz & Mohammad S. Khan & Abdullah G. Yilmaz & Abdallah Shanableh, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Rainwater Tank’s Potential Water Savings, Efficiency and Reliability Presenting Relationship Between ‘Seasonality Index’ and Water Savings Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4345-4361, September.
    7. Mauro Hermann & Heini Wernli & Matthias Röthlisberger, 2024. "Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Iaiani, Matteo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Macini, Paolo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Outage and asset damage triggered by malicious manipulation of the control system in process plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Remzi Eker & Tunahan Çınar & İsmail Baysal & Abdurrahim Aydın, 2024. "Remote sensing and GIS-based inventory and analysis of the unprecedented 2021 forest fires in Türkiye’s history," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 10687-10707, September.
    10. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang, 2020. "Review of studies on the resilience of urban critical infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Alex Dunne & Yuriy Kuleshov, 2023. "Drought risk assessment and mapping for the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 839-863, January.
    12. Petra Tschakert & David Schlosberg & Danielle Celermajer & Lauren Rickards & Christine Winter & Mathias Thaler & Makere Stewart‐Harawira & Blanche Verlie, 2021. "Multispecies justice: Climate‐just futures with, for and beyond humans," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    13. Andrea Duane & Marc Castellnou & Lluís Brotons, 2021. "Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Lin, Chen & Xiao, Hui & Peng, Rui & Xiang, Yisha, 2021. "Optimal defense-attack strategies between M defenders and N attackers: A method based on cumulative prospect theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    15. Zhao, Taiyi & Tang, Yuchun & Li, Qiming & Wang, Jingquan, 2023. "Resilience-oriented network reconfiguration strategies for community emergency medical services," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    16. Jie Zhao & Ji Yun Lee & Dane Camenzind & Michael Wolcott & Kristin Lewis & Olivia Gillham, 2023. "Multi-Component Resilience Assessment Framework for a Supply Chain System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    17. Gilgur, Alexander & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel, 2022. "Modeling mobility, risk, and pandemic severity during the first year of COVID," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Na, Jiaming & Tibebu, Haileleol & De Silva, Varuna & Kondoz, Ahmet & Caine, Michael, 2020. "Probabilistic approximation of effective reproduction number of COVID-19 using daily death statistics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Monzur A. Imteaz & Iqbal Hossain, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on ‘Seasonality Index’ and its Potential Implications on Rainwater Savings," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2593-2606, May.
    20. David Hutton & C. Haque, 2003. "Patterns of Coping and Adaptation Among Erosion-Induced Displacees in Bangladesh: Implications for Hazard Analysis and Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(3), pages 405-421, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:40:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10669-020-09772-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.