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Resilience to global food supply catastrophes

Author

Listed:
  • Seth D. Baum

    (Global Catastrophic Risk Institute)

  • David C. Denkenberger

    (Global Catastrophic Risk Institute)

  • Joshua M. Pearce

    (Michigan Technological University)

  • Alan Robock

    (Michigan Technological University
    Rutgers University)

  • Richelle Winkler

    (Michigan Technological University)

Abstract

Many global catastrophic risks threaten major disruption to global food supplies, including nuclear wars, volcanic eruptions, asteroid and comet impacts, and plant disease outbreaks. This paper discusses options for increasing the resilience of food supplies to these risks. In contrast to local catastrophes, global food supply catastrophes cannot be addressed via food aid from external locations. Three options for food supply resilience are identified: food stockpiles, agriculture, and foods produced from alternative (non-sunlight) energy sources including biomass and fossil fuels. Each of these three options has certain advantages and disadvantages. Stockpiles are versatile but expensive. Agriculture is efficient but less viable in certain catastrophe scenarios. Alternative foods are inexpensive pre-catastrophe but need to be scaled up post-catastrophe and may face issues of social acceptability. The optimal portfolio of food options will typically include some of each and will additionally vary by location as regions vary in population and access to food input resources. Furthermore, if the catastrophe shuts down transportation, then resilience requires local self-sufficiency in food. Food supply resilience requires not just the food itself, but also the accompanying systems of food production and distribution. Overall, increasing food supply resilience can play an important role in global catastrophic risk reduction. However, it is unwise to attempt maximizing food supply resilience, because doing so comes at the expense of other important objectives, including catastrophe prevention. Taking all these issues into account, the paper proposes a research agenda for analysis of specific food supply resilience decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth D. Baum & David C. Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce & Alan Robock & Richelle Winkler, 2015. "Resilience to global food supply catastrophes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 301-313, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:35:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1007_s10669-015-9549-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Igor Linkov & Cate Fox-Lent & Jeffrey Keisler & Stefano Della Sala & Jorg Sieweke, 2014. "Risk and resilience lessons from Venice," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 378-382, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franc-Dąbrowska, Justyna & Drejerska, Nina, 2022. "Resilience in the food sector - environmental, social and economic perspectives in crisis situations," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 25(5), December.
    2. Len Fisher & Anders Sandberg, 2022. "A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 792-807, November.
    3. Pringle, Adam M. & Handler, R.M. & Pearce, J.M., 2017. "Aquavoltaics: Synergies for dual use of water area for solar photovoltaic electricity generation and aquaculture," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 572-584.
    4. Igor Linkov & Sabrina Larkin & James H. Lambert, 2015. "Concepts and approaches to resilience in a variety of governance and regulatory domains," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 183-184, June.
    5. David Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce, 2018. "Micronutrient Availability in Alternative Foods During Agricultural Catastrophes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Seth D. Baum, 2018. "Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 759-775, November.
    7. Seth D. Baum, 2019. "Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2427-2442, November.

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