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Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms

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  • Baum, Seth D.
  • Handoh, Itsuki C.

Abstract

Planetary boundaries (PBs) and global catastrophic risk (GCR) have emerged in recent years as important paradigms for understanding and addressing global threats to humanity and the environment. This article compares the PBs and GCR paradigms and integrates them into a unified PBs-GCR conceptual framework, which we call Boundary Risk for Humanity and Nature (BRIHN). PBs emphasizes global environmental threats, whereas GCR emphasizes threats to human civilization. Both paradigms rate their global threats as top priorities for humanity but lack precision on key aspects of the impacts of the threats. Our integrated BRIHN framework combines elements from both paradigms' treatments of uncertainty and impacts. The BRIHN framework offers PBs a means of handling human impacts and offers GCR a theoretically precise definition of global catastrophe. The BRIHN framework also offers a concise stage for telling a stylized version of the story of humanity and nature co-evolving from the distant past to the present to multiple possible futures. The BRIHN framework is illustrated using the case of disruptions to the global phosphorus biogeochemical cycle.

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  • Baum, Seth D. & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2014. "Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 13-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:107:y:2014:i:c:p:13-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.024
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    2. Bostrom, Nick, 2003. "Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development," Utilitas, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 308-314, November.
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    5. Nick Bostrom, 2013. "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(1), pages 15-31, February.
    6. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Seth D. Baum, 2010. "Is Humanity Doomed? Insights from Astrobiology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-13, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Seth D. Baum & David C. Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce & Alan Robock & Richelle Winkler, 2015. "Resilience to global food supply catastrophes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 301-313, June.
    3. Janzwood, Scott, 2021. "R&D priority-setting for global catastrophic risks: The case of the NASA planetary defense mission," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    4. Nathan Alexander Sears, 2020. "Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(2), pages 255-266, April.
    5. Seth D. Baum, 2015. "Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-236, June.
    6. Hans-Peter Plag & Shelley-Ann Jules-Plag, 2019. "A Transformative Concept: From Data Being Passive Objects to Data Being Active Subjects," Data, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-25, October.
    7. Jan K. Kazak, 2018. "The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Gabel Taggart, 2023. "Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(3), pages 489-499, June.
    9. Len Fisher & Anders Sandberg, 2022. "A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 792-807, November.
    10. Hörisch, Jacob & Ortas, Eduardo & Schaltegger, Stefan & Álvarez, Igor, 2015. "Environmental effects of sustainability management tools: An empirical analysis of large companies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 241-249.
    11. Seth D. Baum, 2018. "Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 759-775, November.
    12. Owen Cotton‐Barratt & Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg, 2020. "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 271-282, May.

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