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Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

Author

Listed:
  • Todd S. Bridges

    (US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory)

  • Daniel Kovacs

    (Decision Partners, LLC)

  • Matthew D. Wood

    (US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory)

  • Kelsie Baker

    (US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory)

  • Gordon Butte

    (Decision Partners, LLC)

  • Sarah Thorne

    (Decision Partners, LLC)

  • Igor Linkov

    (US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory)

Abstract

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd S. Bridges & Daniel Kovacs & Matthew D. Wood & Kelsie Baker & Gordon Butte & Sarah Thorne & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 376-390, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:33:y:2013:i:3:d:10.1007_s10669-013-9461-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-013-9461-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Peter A. Beling, 2013. "Multi-scale decision making: challenges in engineering and environmental systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 323-325, September.

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