IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i7d10.1007_s10668-023-03372-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation and prediction of the dynamic evolution characteristics of resource- and technology-driven economic development models: a case study of the Yangtze River economic belt in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Wang

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications
    Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Haofei Wang

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

  • Xueqin Wang

    (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications
    Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

Abstract

Resource-driven models and technology-driven models appear in different stages of economic development. In the early stage of industrialization, resource-driven economic development is usually the main development mode. Due to the impact of scientific progress and resource shortages, technology-driven economic growth has gradually become mainstream in the middle and late periods of industrialization. However, what are the differences between these two development models in driving economic growth? What is the asymptotic and iterative relationship between them? Understanding the interaction between the two is helpful to promote high-quality economic development. Therefore, by constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework of economic growth-resource consumption-technology progress and using the system dynamics model to simulate the evolution characteristics of the regional economic development driving force in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), the study finds that there is a long-term stable interaction between economic development and the resource- and technology-driven system in the YREB from 2015 to 2030. The energy of the simulation model is accurately reflects the regional development status, and the error of all simulation values is controlled within 5%. With the continuous improvement of economic aggregates, the contribution of technology input to economic growth gradually increases, while the driving force of resource input to economic growth shows a downward trend. Technological progress has become the most important driving force for sustainable economic development, especially the investment of technical personnel and technological capital. This study deepens the understanding of the driving mode of economic development and provides a reference for the development practice of other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Wang & Haofei Wang & Xueqin Wang, 2024. "Simulation and prediction of the dynamic evolution characteristics of resource- and technology-driven economic development models: a case study of the Yangtze River economic belt in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 17967-17993, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03372-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03372-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03372-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03372-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adhvaryu, Achyuta & Fenske, James & Khanna, Gaurav & Nyshadham, Anant, 2021. "Resources, conflict, and economic development in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Ekman, Peter & Röndell, Jimmie & Kowalkowski, Christian & Raggio, Randle D. & Thompson, Steven M., 2021. "Emergent market innovation: A longitudinal study of technology-driven capability development and institutional work," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 469-482.
    3. Ming-Hui Huang & Roland T. Rust, 2017. "Technology-driven service strategy," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 906-924, November.
    4. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    5. Richard M. Auty, 2000. "How Natural Resources Affect Economic Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 347-364, December.
    6. Stephan Barisitz & Andreas Breitenfellner, 2017. "How do resource-driven economies cope with the oil price slump? A comparative survey of ten major oil-exporting countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 33-53.
    7. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political economy of resource-driven growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 839-846, May.
    8. Valentina Botan, 2015. "Post-Soviet countries: the journey from resource-driven economies to knowledge based-economies. Focus on ICT sector," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 15-24, June.
    9. Barna, Tibor, 1976. "Quesnay's model of economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 315-338, December.
    10. Rafael Chaves & Jose Monzón, 2012. "Beyond the crisis: the social economy, prop of a new model of sustainable economic development," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 6(1), pages 5-26, March.
    11. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    12. Romilio Labra & Juan Antonio Rock & Isabel Álvarez, 2016. "Identifying the key factors of growth in natural resource-driven countries. A look from the knowledge-based economy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(79), pages 78-89, April.
    13. Cumming, Douglas, 2007. "Government policy towards entrepreneurial finance: Innovation investment funds," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-235, March.
    14. Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Waguih ElMaraghy, 2021. "System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(6), pages 1757-1775, March.
    15. Rainer Frey & Katrin Hussinger, 2011. "European market integration through technology-driven M&As," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(17), pages 2143-2153.
    16. Laszlo Szalai, 2018. "Institutions and Resource-driven Development," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 39-53, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher A. Hartwell & Roman Horvath & Eva Horvathova & Olga Popova, 2019. "Democratic Institutions, Natural Resources, and Income Inequality," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 531-550, December.
    2. Ahlfeld, Sebastian & Hemmer, Hans-Rimbert, 2006. "Der Beitrag der Geography vs. Institutions-Debatte zur Erklärung von Good oder Bad Governance," Discussion Papers in Development Economics 35, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Institute for Development Economics.
    3. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Michael Keller, 2021. "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 129-166, January.
    4. Nemera Mamo & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2018. "Natural Resources and Political Patronage in Africa: An Ethnicity Level Analysis," Working Paper Series 0418, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Tcheta-Bampa, Tcheta-Bampa & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2018. "Dynamisation de la malédiction des ressources naturelles en Afrique sur les performances économiques : institution et guerre froide [Curse of Natural Resources and Economic Performance in Africa: I," MPRA Paper 86510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Boyce, John R. & Herbert Emery, J.C., 2011. "Is a negative correlation between resource abundance and growth sufficient evidence that there is a "resource curse"?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Costantini, Valeria & Monni, Salvatore, 2008. "Environment, human development and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 867-880, February.
    9. Aznar-Márquez, J. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2005. "Renewable Natural Resources And Endogenous Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 170-197, April.
    10. Manfred Wiebelt & Rainer Schweickert & Clemens Breisinger & Marcus Böhme, 2011. "Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 745-770, November.
    11. Mr. Ludvig Söderling, 2002. "Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2002/093, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Laszlo Szalai, 2018. "Institutions and Resource-driven Development," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 39-53, June.
    13. Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Gearhart, Richard S., 2018. "Resource curse? The case of Kern County," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 446-459.
    14. Bulte, Erwin H & Damania, Richard & Deacon, Robert, 2003. "Resource Abundance, Poverty and Development," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt66z854gv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    15. Waqar Ahmed Wadho, 2014. "Education, Rent seeking and the Curse of Natural Resources," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 128-156, March.
    16. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Ketterer, Tobias, 2016. "Institutions vs. ‘First-Nature’ Geography – What Drives Economic Growth in Europe’s Regions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2006. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1091-1115, August.
    18. Zaidi, Syed Anees Haider & Wei, Zixiang & Gedikli, Ayfer & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Hou, Fujun & Iftikhar, Yaser, 2019. "The impact of globalization, natural resources abundance, and human capital on financial development: Evidence from thirty-one OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Reyes-Loya, Manuel Lorenzo & Blanco, Lorenzo, 2008. "Measuring the importance of oil-related revenues in total fiscal income for Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2552-2568, September.
    20. Coxhead, Ian, 2007. "A New Resource Curse? Impacts of China's Boom on Comparative Advantage and Resource Dependence in Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1099-1119, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03372-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.