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The Future Demand for Industrial Sites in the Netherlands: Is Employment a Good Predictor?

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  • Pascal Beckers
  • Jan Schuur

Abstract

B eckers P. and S chuur J. The future demand for industrial sites in the Netherlands: is employment a good predictor, Regional Studies . Popular forecasting models for long-term planning of industrial sites assume a strong linear relationship between employment and land use. New Dutch panel data for 1997-2008 were used to test this assumption. In a linear model, employment alone does not suffice to predict land use. Non-linear models show a relationship at municipal and industrial sites level, but not for regions. However, the relationship is strongly biased by unobserved heterogeneity. For planning purposes and prediction, additional explanatory variables are necessary to tackle this problem. The findings do not support the use of simple linear models for the planning of industrial sites.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Beckers & Jan Schuur, 2015. "The Future Demand for Industrial Sites in the Netherlands: Is Employment a Good Predictor?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 1535-1547, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:49:y:2015:i:9:p:1535-1547
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2013.838320
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    Cited by:

    1. Jehling, Mathias & Krehl, Angelika & Krüger, Tobias, 2021. "The more the merrier? Questioning the role of new commercial and industrial locations for employment growth in German city regions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Eda Ustaoglu & Carlo Lavalle, 2017. "Examining lag effects between industrial land development and regional economic changes: The Netherlands experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-34, September.
    3. Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.

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