IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v19y2017i5d10.1007_s10668-016-9842-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The contemporary illusion: population growth and sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Maristella Bergaglio

    (University of Milan)

Abstract

Since the 1970s, debates on “population growth” and “sustainability” have fluctuated markedly between pessimistic forecasts and optimistic certainties. Nowadays, they have reached a strange, comfortable illusion according to which the demographic future of our planet does not seem to be a problem at all. Nevertheless, median population growth projections by 2100 indicate that an arrest of the increase by the end of the century is rather unlikely. The future prospect is made even more critical by the fact that the increase will occur in what can be called demographic “Growing spots,” strongly opposed to just as many “Aging spots.” In these terms, therefore, the future demographic dynamics will certainly pose a challenge to the “population growth-sustainability” combination, for which it will be necessary to develop a new paradigm capable of operating in a “strong transcalar perspective,” within a global space that will increasingly acquire characteristics of fluidity and changeability.

Suggested Citation

  • Maristella Bergaglio, 2017. "The contemporary illusion: population growth and sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 2023-2038, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9842-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-016-9842-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-016-9842-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-016-9842-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marsiglio, Simone, 2011. "On the relationship between population change and sustainable development," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 353-364, December.
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n6_1070 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Irmi Seidl & Clem A. Tisdell, 2003. "Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity," Chapters, in: Ecological and Environmental Economics, chapter 13, pages 192-206, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Paul R. Ehrlich & Peter M. Kareiva & Gretchen C. Daily, 2012. "Securing natural capital and expanding equity to rescale civilization," Nature, Nature, vol. 486(7401), pages 68-73, June.
    5. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    6. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
    7. Ansley J. Coale, 1984. "The Demographic Transition," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 531-552.
    8. Richard Grossman, 2012. "The importance of human population to sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(6), pages 973-977, December.
    9. Lucas Bretschger, 2013. "Population Growth and Natural-Resource Scarcity: Long-Run Development under Seemingly Unfavorable Conditions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 722-755, July.
    10. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    11. Carleton Schade & David Pimentel, 2010. "Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty-first century," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 245-262, April.
    12. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    13. Franck, Siegfried & von Bloh, Werner & Müller, Christoph & Bondeau, Alberte & Sakschewski, B., 2011. "Harvesting the sun: New estimations of the maximum population of planet Earth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(12), pages 2019-2026.
    14. Tony Pereira, 2012. "The transition to a sustainable society: a new social contract," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 273-281, April.
    15. Marc Nerlove, 1991. "Population and the Environment: A Parable of Firewood and Other Tales," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1334-1347.
    16. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1972_27n6_0977 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simona-Roxana Ulman & Costica Mihai & Cristina Cautisanu & Ioan-Sebastian Brumă & Oana Coca & Gavril Stefan, 2021. "Environmental Performance in EU Countries from the Perspective of Its Relation to Human and Economic Wellbeing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-26, December.
    2. David McCollum & Hebe Nicholson & Paula Duffy, 2021. "A place-based approach to population sustainability: Demographic and economic change at the local level in Fife, Scotland," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 36(6), pages 505-523, September.
    3. Weizhang Liang & Guoyan Zhao & Suizhi Luo, 2021. "Sustainability evaluation for phosphorus mines using a hybrid multi-criteria decision making method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12411-12433, August.
    4. O'Sullivan, Jane N., 2020. "The social and environmental influences of population growth rate and demographic pressure deserve greater attention in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    5. Luciano Ferreira Silva & Arnoldo José Hoyos Guevara & Ernesto D. R. Santibanez Gonzalez & Paulo Sergio Gonçalves Oliveira, 2019. "Evolution toward environment sustainable behavior: search for survival in the plastic industry in Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 1291-1320, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simone Marsiglio, 2017. "A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and environmental concern," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(3), pages 263-282, July.
    2. Karra, Mahesh & Wilde, Joshua, 2023. "Economic Foundations of Contraceptive Transitions: Theories and a Review of the Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15889, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 130-140.
    4. Marsiglio, Simone, 2011. "On the relationship between population change and sustainable development," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 353-364, December.
    5. Tatiane Menezes & R. Silveira-Neto & Carlos Azzoni, 2012. "Demography and evolution of regional inequality," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 643-655, December.
    6. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo, 2004. "Endogenous longevity, health and economic growth: a slow growth for a longer life?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10.
    7. Eduardo Cavallo & Gabriel Sánchez & Patricio Valenzuela, 2018. "Gone with the wind: Demographic transitions and domestic saving," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 1744-1764, November.
    8. World Bank, 2011. "Uganda - Demography and Economic Growth in Uganda," World Bank Publications - Reports 2811, The World Bank Group.
    9. Théophile T. Azomahou & Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene, 2009. "A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(2), pages 201-244, June.
    10. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.
    11. Nancy Birdsall & Liliana Rojas-Suarez (ed.), 2004. "Financing Development: The Power of Regionalism," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 359, April.
    12. Ha, Nguyen Thi Thu & Hoa, Lam Ba, 2018. "On the Causality Relationship between Demographic Changes, Economic Growth and Domestic Savings in Vietnam," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 27-38.
    13. Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    14. K. Navaneetham, 2002. "Age structural transition and economic growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 337, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    15. repec:got:cegedp:140 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    17. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    18. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & An-Chi Tung & Mun-Sim Lai & Tim Miller, 2009. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 89-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    20. Richard Grossman, 2012. "The importance of human population to sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(6), pages 973-977, December.
    21. Ponthiere, Gregory, 2011. "Existence and stability of overconsumption equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 74-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9842-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.