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The Demographic Transition

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  • ANSLEY J. COALE

    (Princeton University,Princeton, N.J. (U .S.A).)

Abstract

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modern societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breast-feeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansley J. Coale, 1984. "The Demographic Transition," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 531-552.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:23:y:1984:i:4:p:531-552
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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1984/Volume4/531-552.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rehana Siddiqui, 1996. "The Impact of Socio-economic Factors on Fertility Behaviour: A Cross-country Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 107-128.
    2. Somjet Srikanok & Daniel M Parker & Amber L Parker & Tracey Lee & Aung Myat Min & Pranee Ontuwong & Saw Oo Tan & Supachai Sirinonthachai & Rose McGready, 2017. "Empirical lessons regarding contraception in a protracted refugee setting: A descriptive study from Maela camp on the Thai-Myanmar border 1996 – 2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, February.
    3. González Alejandro López & González-González María Jesús, 2018. "Third demographic transition and demographic dividend: An application based on panel data analysis," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 42(42), pages 59-82, December.
    4. Li, Ting & Yang, Yang Claire & Zhang, Yanlong, 2018. "Culture, economic development, social-network type, and mortality: Evidence from Chinese older adults," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 23-30.
    5. Ting Li & Wenting Fan & Jian Song, 2020. "The Household Structure Transition in China: 1982–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1369-1391, August.
    6. Maristella Bergaglio, 2017. "The contemporary illusion: population growth and sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 2023-2038, October.
    7. George J. Mergos, 1992. "The Economic Contribution of Children in Peasant Agriculture and the Effect of Education: Evidence from the Philippines," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 189-201.
    8. Maxim Kan, 2023. "Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-39, December.

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